The European Parliament elections are set to produce major surprises, with strong candidates poised to take seats against the usual party voting trends, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
In the local government elections Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are likely to lose significant numbers of seats. Sinn Féin will make major gains, with Labour also making solid advances. Fianna Fáil could retain its six seats and conceivably win a seventh in the European elections.
Fine Gael candidates are also polling very well and likely to retain the four seats they currently hold, while Labour may gain a Leinster seat to add to its one in Dublin.
The Green Party is on course to be the big loser, failing to retain its Leinster seat and with Ms Patricia McKenna's seat under pressure in Dublin. Sinn Féin's Ms Mary Lou McDonald has a chance of taking this seat. Dana Rosemary Scallon is also set to lose her seat.
The opinion poll was conducted among a national quota sample of 2,000 voters throughout the State last Tuesday and Wednesday.
Some 500 voters were interviewed in each of the four European constituencies. They were presented with a sample ballot paper.
In the Dublin European constituency, the Lord Mayor, Mr Royston Brady, on 18 per cent, is clearly ahead of his running mate, Mr Eoin Ryan TD on 13 per cent. Fine Gael's Mr Gay Mitchell, on 19 per cent, is currently topping the poll, despite Fine Gael's recent poor performance in the capital.
Labour's Mr Proinsias De Rossa, on 14 per cent, is also on course to win, the poll shows, with the final seat being contested among Mr Ryan, Ms McDonald of Sinn Féin and Ms McKenna of the Greens.
Fianna Fáil's Mr Liam Aylward and Fine Gael's Ms Avril Doyle jointly top the poll in East and are poised to be elected comfortably.
Labour's Mr Peter Cassells has the edge for the last seat, according to the poll, although Fine Gael's second candidate, Ms Maireád McGuinness, is doing very well.
In Munster Fianna Fáil's Mr Brian Crowley is again set to top the poll and be elected with a large surplus. Fine Gael's Mr Simon Coveney is polling strongly and is likely to be elected second, with outgoing MEP Mr Gerard Collins favourite to hold the third seat against a challenge from Independent disability rights campaigner, Ms Kathy Sinnott.
In North West the vote of outgoing MEP Ms Dana Rosemary Scallon seems to have collapsed since her 1999 victory, and independent Ms Marian Harkin is close to taking a seat instead.
Mr Seán Ó Neachtáin is topping the poll despite Fianna Fáil's earlier efforts to keep him off the party ticket. Mr Ó Neachtáin, Mr Jim Higgins of Fine Gael and Ms Harkin are likely to take the three seats, with Fianna Fáil's Dr Jim McDaid having some chance of getting ahead of Ms Harkin.
In relation to the local government elections the state of the parties is: Fianna Fáil 32 per cent, down eight points from the 1999 elections; Fine Gael 24, down four; Labour 16, up five; Sinn Féin 10, up 6.5; Green Party four, up 1.5; Progressive Democrats four, up one; Others 11, down two.
In relation to a separate question on how those polled would vote in a general election the state of the parties is: Fianna Fáil 33 per cent, up two points since the last Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll in February; Fine Gael 23 per cent, up two; Labour 16 per cent, down one; Sinn Féin 10 per cent, down two; Green Party 4 per cent, down one; Progressive Democrats 3 per cent, unchanged; Others 9 per cent, unchanged.
Some 35 per cent are satisfied with the performance of the Government, down three since February. Some 58 per cent are dissatisfied, up three, while an unchanged 7 per cent have no opinion.
The Taoiseach's satisfaction rating is down four points to 43 per cent with 51 per cent dissatisfied, up four and an unchanged 6 per cent with no opinion.
Mr Enda Kenny's satisfaction rating is up three to 34 per cent, his highest since becoming party leader. However, the same number say they are dissatisfied with his performance, down three points, while a substantial 32 per cent has no opinion, the same as in February.
Labour's Mr Pat Rabbitte received the highest approval rating of all the leaders, despite losing two percentage points to 46 per cent. Some 25 per cent are dissatisfied, unchanged, and 29 per cent have no opinion, up two.
Satisfaction with the Sinn Féin leader, Mr Gerry Adams, is at 42 per cent, down nine. Dissatisfaction is up eight to 32 per cent, with 26 per cent having no opinion, up one.
Finally, 32 per cent are satisfied with the performance of Mr Trevor Sargent as Green Party leader, down three points.