A LEADING German polling agency has rejected claims that it presents distorted survey results to undermine public confidence in the euro.
The Centre for European Studies (CEPS), a Brussels think tank, suggested yesterday that Germany’s Allensbach Institute uses a faulty methodology to imply a largely negative public attitude towards about the single currency.
In its most recent monthly survey, Allensbach suggested that 76 per cent of Germans had little or no trust in the euro, with 19 per cent expressing trust.
CEPS says its own analysis, drawing on the EU-wide Eurobarometer survey, indicates that German support for the euro remains largely unchanged in the financial crisis.
In this analysis, nearly two-thirds (63 per cent) of Germans support the euro, as opposed to a third (32 per cent) who do not.
What sounds like splitting statistical hairs is anything but, CEPS argues, because of the influence polls have on the European debate and on the strategy of national politicians.
“It is widely assumed in Germany that German citizens have turned against the euro, but this simply isn’t the case,” said Dr Felix Roth, a CEPS research fellow.
Allensbach disputes the CEPS claim that it delivers a distorted spin on data.
It points out that Germans’ trust in the euro, never very high to begin with, has fluctuated greatly over the years.
“Even at this new low point – our latest survey shows just 22 per cent of Germans with great trust in the euro – we are still within the normal bandwidth,” said Dr Thomas Petersen, researcher at Allensbach.
He confirmed that Allensbach had simplified its “euro trust” survey question a decade ago and now offers respondents the choice between just three answers: “great trust”, “little trust” and “no trust” in the currency.
The CEPS suggests it is “sensational” to add the latter two responses, as Allensbach does in its monthly surveys for the Frankfurter Allgemeine daily, to suggest that three quarters of Germans have lost trust in their currency.
“The impression abroad, that German public opinion is now against the euro, has firmly taken root as a result,” said Daniel Gros, the CEPS director and report co-author.
The Eurobarometer survey is more reliable, CEPS argues, because its euro attitudes question is asked in a wider EU context and framed as a matter of “support” rather than “trust”.
“The dramatic fall in trust in the euro, as depicted by Allensbach, most likely reflects a fall in trust in money in general and not a German loss of trust in the euro as a centrepiece of European integration,” said Dr Roth.
Where the two surveys agree is in seeing a dramatic fall in German support for European institutions, in particular the European Central Bank.
Allensbach’s competitors defended the polling agency, pointing out that it has surveyed for the federal government for decades.
“Both Allensbach and Eurobarometer are serious operators doing reliable surveys,” said a pollster from another German agency. “But they are approaching the same issue from two different perspectives.”