The Nice Treaty is on course to be ratified by the Irish people, although the level of voter turnout in Saturday's referendum will be crucial, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll.
Although levels of satisfaction with the Government and the Taoiseach have fallen to new record lows since the last poll just 18 days ago, this has not translated into growing opposition to Nice, as had been feared by the Yes campaign. The drift to the No side that occurred during last year's campaign has not happened on this occasion.
Some 42 per cent intend to vote for the Nice Treaty, up five points since the last Irish Times/MRBI poll published 18 days ago; 29 per cent will vote No, up four points; 19 per cent do not know how they will vote, down 13 points; and 10 per cent say they will not vote, up 3 points.
There is a narrower margin of support for the treaty than in the poll just days before the June 2001 referendum. That Irish Times/MRBI poll suggested 45 per cent would vote Yes and 28 per cent No, with 27 per cent having no opinion.
This margin of support turned into a defeat for the treaty by 54 per cent to 46 per cent. Just 34.8 per cent of the electorate voted on that occasion.
However, while there was a dramatic shift from the Yes to the No side during the campaign last year, this movement has not taken place this time. In June 2001, the No side gained seven percentage points, while the Yes side lost seven points between the first and second Irish Times/MRBI polls of that campaign. On this occasion, however, both sides have gained proportionately as voters made up their minds and the "Don't Know" category shrunk.
The latest poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday among a national quota sample of 1,000 voters at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the State.
Although the poll gives the Yes side cause for optimism, the outcome will depend on the level of voter turnout, and on which voters are most motivated to cast their ballot next Saturday.
The level of understanding of the issues has increased during the campaign, and those professing greater understanding are more likely to be Yes voters, the poll shows.
For the first time since Mr Ahern became Fianna Fáil leader, there are more people dissatisfied (50 per cent) than satisfied (44 per cent) with his performance. Some 6 per cent have no opinion.
Just 33 per cent of voters are satisfied with the Government, down three points since last month. Some 61 per cent are dissatisfied with the Coalition, an increase of five points, with 6 per cent expressing no opinion, down two points.
As in the last poll, there is a strong correlation between dissatisfaction with the Government and intention to vote No on Nice. Among No voters, 75 per cent are dissatisfied with the Coalition's performance, just 18 per cent are satisfied and 7 per cent have no opinion.A much smaller percentage of Yes voters - 51 per cent - are dissatisfied, 45 per cent are satisfied, with 4 per cent having no opinion.Fianna Fáil has seen a modest increase in its share of the vote while Fine Gael support has fallen to a level that will cause the party great concern.
The state of the parties is: Fianna Fáil 36 per cent, up two points on last month's poll; Fine Gael 19 per cent, down 4 points; Labour 14 per cent, unchanged; Sinn Féin 9 per cent, unchanged; Green Party 8 per cent, unchanged; Progressive Democrats 5 per cent, unchanged; Others 9 per cent, up two points.
The core support for the parties is: Fianna Fáil 34 per cent, up two points since the last poll; Fine Gael 14 per cent, down four points; Labour 10 per cent, unchanged; Sinn Féin 7 per cent, unchanged; Green Party 6 per cent, unchanged; Progressive Democrats 4 per cent, unchanged; Others 8 per cent, up two points. Some 17 per cent were undecided.