EVENTS at Drumcree, the marching season and the intimidation and boycotting of Protestant businesses have brought about an increase in the level of political support for moderate politics and politicians in Northern Ireland and a commensurate fail for hard line approaches.
Although the figures are not directly comparable to the Northern Ireland Forum election results, the latest Irish Times opinion poll shows a drift of support away from the UUP, the DUP, the UKUP and Sinn Fein and towards the SDLP, the Alliance and the fringe loyalist parties.
Between them, the PUP and the UDP now attract 11 per cent of the Protestant vote, while a further 9 per cent of that vote is secured by the Alliance Party. The UUP still holds pole position within the Protestant community, with 34 per cent of the vote, and is being trailed by the DUP, with 26 per cent support. The UKUP takes 1.5 per cent.
The SDLP attracts the allegiance of 50 per cent of Catholic voters and, although Sinn Fein has lost ground since June, some 30 per cent of Catholics still say they would give their support to that party in an election. Alliance takes 6 per cent.
The strong cross community satisfaction rating with Mr John Hume is one of the features of the opinion poll, at 62 per cent. His political leadership is approved of by 86 per cent of Catholics and by 44 per cent of Protestants.
An error in transmission caused Lord Alderdice of the Alliance Party to be excluded from the questionnaire but Mr David Ervine emerged with 56 per cent support among Protestants and 36 per cent support among Catholics. The other fringe loyalist party leader, Mr Gary McMichael, also attracted strong cross community support for his political leadership, securing approval from 54 per cent of Protestants and 30 per cent of Catholics.
By contrast, the political leadership of Mr David Trimble secured only 9 per cent support among Catholics, compared to 66 per cent of Protestants. Approval for Mr Gerry Adams was equally unbalanced, with 8 per cent of Protestants and 51 per cent of Catholics approving of his political leadership. Both attracted a 75 per cent dissatisfaction rating within the opposing community.
The anxiety of both communities not to slip back into a cycle of violence is obvious from the priorities they identify for the new RUC Chief Constable, Mr Ronnie Flanagan. Some 49 per cent of Protestants say the greatest challenge is the possibility of a renewed campaign of violence by Loyalist and republican paramilitaries and 29 per cent of Catholics agree. The priority for Catholics, at 54 per cent, is to make the RUC more acceptable to both communities and 31 per cent of Protestants agree. Continuing intimidation and punishment beatings are seen as the priority by 7 per cent of Protestants and 14 per cent of Catholics.
When a second option was allowed to respondents, 71 per cent of those questioned identified a renewal of paramilitary violence as the priority; 63 per cent wished to make the RUC more acceptable and 54 per cent sought a crackdown on intimidation and punishment beatings.
Friction between the loyalist parties is reflected within the Protestant community by a reluctance to enter pre election pacts and 60 per cent feel the various parties should stand alone. In contrast, Catholic voters divide almost equally on the issue. Overall, 54 per cent of the electorate believe the parties should stand alone, with 38 per cent favouring voting pacts.
Suspicion by Catholics of the Orange Order is reflected in the 26 per cent who believe the Order "always" represents the views of the Protestant community. This figure falls to 15 per cent among Protestants. There is, however, agreement by 30 per cent of both communities that the Orange Order "mostly" reflects Protestant views. And 43 per cent of Protestants and 34 per cent of Catholics believe that this "sometimes" happens. In working class areas, the actions and statements of the Order are seen as being "always" or "mostly" supportive of the Protestant community.
The findings of the poll are likely to contribute to political debate within the UUP on that party's future relationship with the Orange Order.