The late H.L. Mencken said that polls "should be taken, but not inhaled", which is a clever way of saying that, for all their worth, they do not have the same status as the electorate solemnly casting its ballot in the privacy of the polling booth.
Voting is a form of decision-making; polls a version of political photography. However, the picture presented in the UMS survey for The Irish Times and RTE's Prime Time programme has some fascinating features.
It was, of course, predictable that views on such issues as decommissioning would tend to reflect the religious background of the respondents, and that Catholics were more likely than Protestants to vote Yes in a rerun of the referendum on the agreement.
The interest arises when you go into the figures in detail. Thus 54 per cent overall found it acceptable that a Northern Ireland executive be formed "only when decommissioning has taken place". This was the view of 77 per cent of Protestant respondents, which is probably not quite as high a figure as one might have expected. Among Catholics, 23 per cent took the "no guns, no government" stance: slightly more than one might have predicted.
That is, in essence, the Hillsborough Declaration position. The April 1st text envisaged that, while ministers would be named, not even the shadow executive would be formed until the guns were put "beyond use".
Governments and parties have been taking their distance from Hillsborough, and the next effort is likely to be more flexible or at least more ambiguous in content. Politicians and officials will doubtless be studying the other results in this poll with keen interest.
"Executive to be postponed to September pending further negotiations", which seems likely to be the de facto position, was acceptable to 43 per cent and unacceptable to 46 per cent: almost an even balance.
Likewise there was a near-equal division between the 45 per cent who were prepared to accept formation of the executive, with or without guns, and the 47 per cent who rejected this course of action. Given that the weight of government, party and media opinion has, in principle at least, supported the unionist position, the republicans will derive some comfort from the fact that almost half the electorate appears to support Sinn Fein's interpretation of the agreement.
One way or the other, the voters are keen to see the decommissioning issue dealt with because only 7 per cent believe the executive "should not be formed at all", compared with 82 per cent who find such a position unacceptable. Those who reject this option include, fairly predictably, 87 per cent of Catholic respondents but a perhaps surprisingly high 78 per cent of Protestants.
Since people in Northern Ireland politics rarely get everything they want, it is instructive to study the answers in the section entitled "Most Preferred Possibility".
Here, the winner was once again "no guns, no government" at 44 per cent, but only five points ahead of forming the executive, with or without decommissioning. A desire to have done with the problem, one way or the other, was indicated by the fact that only 10 per cent made postponement until September their first choice.
Overall, 71 per cent believe the level of violence will increase if the Belfast pact falls, and this is a rare instance where Protestant and Catholic opinion is evenly balanced: 71 per cent of the former and 70 per cent of the latter. A more modest 55 per cent (50 per cent Protestant, 59 per cent Catholic) believe Northern Ireland will be "more prosperous" if the agreement remains in place.
From media reports and politicians' comments, one could be forgiven for believing that a rerun of the May 1998 referendum would show a considerably smaller level of support for the agreement. However, this poll indicates that, if the vote were held tomorrow, 73 per cent would vote Yes, slightly higher than the 71.12 per cent support the pact received on the day in Northern Ireland.
Even more surprising, the poll indicates a modest increase in Protestant support for the agreement, from 51 to 58 per cent.
What if the arms dispute remains unresolved? Over a third, or 38 per cent, feel the executive should be formed without Sinn Fein, with nearly half, or 46 per cent, favouring delay until Sinn Fein can be included.
There is a sizeable 16 per cent "Don't Know" response, reflecting the uncertainty that now surrounds this entire issue. Fifty per cent of Ulster Unionist Party supporters backed the "go it alone" strategy, but 33 per cent favoured the "wait for Sinn Fein" approach. The party with the hardest decision to make in this scenario would be the SDLP, and the figures among their supporters were as follows: Wait for Sinn Fein, 68 per cent; Without Sinn Fein, 15 per cent; Don't Know, 17 per cent.
Wider questions were also considered in the poll. Asked if the RUC should be replaced by another police force, 32 per cent either tended to agree or agreed strongly compared with 51 per cent who tended to disagree or disagreed strongly.
In answer to the question, "Should the RUC be restructured?" 55 per cent tended to agree or agreed strongly, while 31 per cent tended to disagree or disagreed strongly.
Breaking these figures down on a denominational basis showed a sizeable 74 per cent of Catholics in favour of restructuring with a more modest 41 per cent of Protestants. The percentage of Protestants who, with varying degrees of vehemence, opposed any such restructuring was only three points higher at 44 per cent. Food for thought there, perhaps, for the Patten Commission, although while 9 per cent of Protestants "agreed strongly" with RUC restructuring, 31 per cent "disagreed strongly".
There was widespread support for the continuation of the Northern Ireland Assembly, with 73 per cent believing their politicians should work to ensure the survival of the institution rather than selectively using it to advance specific party principles or endeavouring to bring it to an end, an issue which has already caused a split in Mr Robert McCartney's UK Unionist Party.
At the same time, there is deep pessimism about the coming year. Only a narrow majority of 52 per cent believe the agreement will survive the next 12 months, with 31 per cent saying that it will not and 17 per cent uncertain.
It is a measure of the uniqueness of Northern Ireland society that there should be such a clear majority in favour of what amounts to a new constitution, or governmental framework, while almost half the voters doubt that this framework will ever be put in place.
A special RTE Prime Time programme providing details and analysis of the poll is broadcast tonight at 10.35 p.m.