The Belfast Agreement would receive a slightly higher level of support among Northern voters in the event of a second referendum, according to the latest opinion poll. The survey also found a majority in favour of forming an executive only after paramilitary weapons were decommissioned.
A total 73 per cent of respondents said they would support the agreement, compared with 71.12 per cent in the referendum last May. However, only 52 per cent believed the agreement would survive another 12 months.
The Ulster Marketing Surveys poll was conducted for The Irish Times and RTE's Prime Time programme among 1,000 voters throughout Northern Ireland's 18 constituencies last Thursday and Friday.
The results reflected the sectarian divide in Northern Ireland, especially on the weapons issue. A total 77 per cent of Protestants believed an executive could only be formed after a handover of guns compared with 23 per cent of Catholics.
The view that an executive should be formed, regardless of whether decommissioning had occurred, was rejected by 47 per cent but considered acceptable by 45 per cent, with 8 per cent having no opinion.
Among Protestants, 71 per cent rejected this option while 78 per cent of Catholic respondents found it acceptable.
The option of postponing the executive until September pending further negotiations was turned down by 46 per cent overall, but 43 per cent considered it acceptable. Refusal to form the executive under any circumstances received least support at 7 per cent, compared with 82 per cent who rejected this.
Presented with a list of four possibilities, 44 per cent said they favoured formation of an executive only after decommissioning and 39 per cent favoured going ahead even without a weapons handover. But only 10 per cent backed postponement of the executive until September and a mere 3 per cent said the executive should not be established at all.
There was widespread support for the continuation of the Stormont Assembly, with 73 per cent stating that their politicians should work to ensure its survival as an institution rather than using it to advance specific party principles or endeavouring to bring about its collapse. Even among Democratic Unionist Party voters, 55 per cent said DUP policy should be directed at the survival of the Assembly.
Despite the marginal improvement in support for the agreement, there is relatively little optimism that it will survive.
Only a narrow majority of 52 per cent feel the pact will remain in place for a further 12 months while 31 per cent believe it will collapse, with 17 per cent uncertain either way. The poll figures also indicate widespread anxiety that failure of the agreement will lead to an increase in violence and an erosion of economic prosperity.
There was strong support for immediate decommissioning in both communities. Only 9 per cent of Catholics felt republican paramilitaries should never decommission, with 3 per cent of Protestants taking a similar attitude to loyalist groups.
There was deep community division over the future of the RUC. A total of 62 per cent of Catholics wanted the force replaced by a new police service, but 76 per cent of Protestants disagreed. A new structure for the RUC, as distinct from its replacement, was only marginally less contentious.
Among six key politicians, the Deputy First Minister, Mr Seamus Mallon of the SDLP, achieved the highest satisfaction rating at 68 per cent overall, followed by the First Minister, Mr David Trimble, at 63 per cent.
The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, tied at 59 per cent in their satisfaction rating. The Sinn Fein leader, Mr Gerry Adams, received 38 per cent and the Rev Ian Paisley 23 per cent.
While Mr Mallon scored a 90 per cent satisfaction rating with supporters of his own party, he also received 74 per cent approval from Ulster Unionist Party voters.
Mr Trimble's support among UUP voters stood at 77 per cent but 75 per cent of SDLP voters were also satisfied with the First Minister and a remarkable 45 per cent from Sinn Fein.
When asked for their first-preference voting choices, respondents answered as follows: SDLP 23 per cent; UUP 16; Sinn Fein 13; DUP 12; Progressive Unionist Party 6; Alliance 6; UKUP 3; Ulster Democratic Party 2.