THE LIBERAL Democrats’ extraordinary surge in the opinion poll ratings has continued, with a series of new figures last night suggesting that the party, with just 63 seats in the outgoing House of Commons, has now pushed Labour into third place.
The Guardian/ICM poll put the Liberals on 30 per cent, up 10 points in a week and places Labour on 28 points – its lowest figure since last October and the first time the party has ever come third in this poll, which began in 1984.
The Conservatives are on 33 per cent, the same figure that was secured by leader David Cameron’s predecessor Michael Howard in the 2005 election – but also the lowest figure in any ICM poll since July 2007.
The poll was taken after Liberal leader Nick Clegg’s performance in last week’s leaders’ TV debate in Manchester – which is to followed this Thursday by a second debate, hosted by Sky News.
It is difficult to draw conclusions about the number of seats each party would win if this poll were replicated on May 6th, but it is apparent that Labour would still end up with the largest number of seats if the votes were distributed proportionally.
Speaking in Swansea early yesterday, Mr Clegg said: “[Voters] are starting to believe that the old tired choices that they have been given by the old parties of the past no longer need to govern the way in which we run politics in the future.”
The Liberal poll rise, which is being reflected in doorstep comments to both the Conservatives and Labour, is now causing serious concern to both Gordon Brown and Mr Cameron.
Labour’s initial belief that increased Liberal support would help it hold on to seats threatened by the Conservatives has weakened, following signals that the majority of the Liberals’ new support is coming from traditional Labour voters.
Reflecting the new dynamic, the Conservative leader dropped a planned party political broadcast attacking Labour in favour of one warning voters of the dangers of a hung parliament.
The debate had “shaken up”, he acknowledged: “But the only way we’re going to get that change is through a clear, decisive result at this election. Any other result would lead to more indecision and more old politics – we might even be stuck with what we have now.”
While both of the main parties are now trying to raise questions in voters’ minds about Liberal policies, there is a concern in both that direct attacks upon Mr Clegg in Thursday’s debate could simply fuel support for him.
Meanwhile, Labour’s culture secretary, Ben Bradshaw, became the latest senior party figure to extend the olive branch to the third-largest party in relation to post-election coalition talks, should they be required.
“We have a lot in common with our Liberal Democrat colleagues. We work very well together on local issues. We share a lot in common with them with our strong support for electoral reform. The way to get real change in this election is to have a Labour government or to have a government where Labour and Liberal Democrats work together. The only way you won’t get change is by having a Conservative government,” he said.
However, the Liberals are open to attack, as illustrated by a YouGov poll which tested 10 of the party’s core policies for popularity. Just three of them were popular, while six were deeply unpopular with voters.
A majority of voters favour the party’s policy on raising the income tax threshold to £10,000, limiting public sector pay rises for two years and changing the voting system to elect MPs.
However, opposition was found to giving more powers to the EU, membership of the euro at any time, reducing the use of shorter prison sentences and an amnesty for illegal immigrants who have not broken laws in the UK.
