Poll shows swing to Higgins in final days

An opinion poll conducted on the day of the presidential election yesterday shows that Michael D Higgins outpolled Seán Gallagher…

An opinion poll conducted on the day of the presidential election yesterday shows that Michael D Higgins outpolled Seán Gallagher by nearly three to one in Dublin.

The poll also showed there was a significant swing from Mr Gallagher to Mr Higgins in the wake of the RTÉ Frontline debate involving all of the candidates on Monday night.

A total of 35 per cent of respondents said they were influenced a lot by the debate; 20 per cent said they were influenced a little and 45 per cent said they were not at all influenced by it.

The telephone poll, conducted by Red C for RTÉ yesterday, showed 38 per cent of voters made up their minds in the final two or three days of the campaign.

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A total of 28 per cent of voters said they changed their minds in the final week were in that category. Of those, 58 per cent switched from Mr Gallagher to Mr Higgins.

In regional terms, Mr Higgins won 46 per cent of the vote in Dublin compared to 16 per cent for Mr Gallagher.

In Munster, Mr Higgins led by 40 per dent to 33 per cent, while in the rest of Leinster his lead was 36 per cent to 31 per cent. In Connacht-Ulster, he was ahead by 37 per cent to 31 per cent.

Mr Higgins captured the support of 70 per cent of those who voted for the Labour Party in last February’s general election, but Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell won only 15 per cent support among those who voted for his party in that election.

The poll showed that Mr Higgins captured three times as many Fine Gael voters as Mr Mitchell while Mr Gallagher won more votes from Fine Gael supporters than the party’s own candidate.

Among Fianna Fail voters last February, some 62 per cent voted for Mr Gallagher. Almost half of those who voted for the party in 2007 voted for him yesterday.

Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness attracted the backing of 70 per cent of those who voted for his party in the February election.

Stephen Collins

Stephen Collins

Stephen Collins is a columnist with and former political editor of The Irish Times