Poll will put the unity of Coalition to severe test

The stability of the new Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats Government will be further tested by the results of the latest opinion…

The stability of the new Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats Government will be further tested by the results of the latest opinion poll. It shows that support for the PDs has slumped to 2 per cent, from 7 per cent in late May and 4.7 per cent in the general election, while the fortunes of Fianna Fail and its leader, Mr Ahern, have soared.

There are only two consolations for the Tanaiste, Ms Harney, in the latest opinion poll findings: her satisfaction rating is 62 per cent, up five percentage points since May 28th; and 89 per cent of PD supporters are satisfied with her performance.

With the Taoiseach's rating rising to 73 per cent, up eight points in four months, Mr Ahern retains the confidence of 89 per cent of Fianna Fail voters despite the internal fall-out from the Haughey, Reynolds and Burke controversies.

Some 61 per cent of PD voters are satisfied with the way Mr Ahern is doing his job as Taoiseach while 70 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters are satisfied with Ms Harney's performance as Tanaiste.

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The disparity in the fortunes of the bigger and smaller parties in the Fianna Fail/PD coalition is likely to increase internal PD tensions over the Government's handling of the controversy surrounding the £30,000 political donation received by the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Burke, during the 1989 election campaign.

Fianna Fail and Mr Ahern seem to be reaping benefit from the manner in which the drip-feed of Burke allegations is being handled. The smaller PD party is, apparently, carrying all the political odium arising from the first major controversy to hit the Government.

These factors must worry the PD leadership as it grapples with the expected political fall-out from the third tribunal into allegations against politicians to be established this year, the second such inquiry since the Government's formation.

Meanwhile, the three main parties have increased their support in Dublin since the last Irish Times/MRBI poll on May 28th, just before the general election. The current party ratings in Dublin, excluding the 17 per cent don't-knows, are: Fianna Fail 46 per cent, up 12 percentage points; Fine Gael 23 per cent, up one point; Labour 16 per cent, up six points; PDs 2 per cent, down 10 points; DL 3 per cent, up one point; and Green Party 4 per cent, down five points.