Polls back Labour in spite of late swing

THE people of Britain wilt today make history

THE people of Britain wilt today make history. And the final opinion polls of the campaign suggest they remain set to do so by bringing 18 years of Tory government to an end.

However, the pollsters have detected a late swing back to the Conservatives which, if continued throughout the day, could considerably reduce Labour's projected majority in the next Rouse of Commons.

Preliminary figures from an ICM poll last night gave Labour a lead of 10 points, while Gallup estimated the lead at 13 points. MORI maintains, however, that Labour goes into polling day with a 20 point advantage.

Harris puts Labour's lead at 17 points. Both Gallup and ICM estimate the Tory share of the vote, as the polls open, at 33 per cent.

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Such disparity in the polling evidence will give a still sharper edge to the parties as they launch an all out effort to bring out their vote and dramatically underlines Mr Tony Blair's repeated warnings to supporters not to take the election result for granted.

The dying hours of the long campaign had earlier been electrified by a sense of impending change - evident from the raucous eve of poll rallies, the sight of armed guards outside Mr Blair's constituency home, and the confirmation that the putative prime minister has "tentatively" scheduled a meeting with the Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, for next Thursday in London.

History will be made if Mr Major wins a fifth term, or if an unprecedented swing sweeps Mr Blair into Downing Street, 23 years after the British people last elected a Labour government.

Some 44 million people are eligible to participate in what Mr Major has dubbed "Britain's Day of Destiny". And, as Mr Paddy Ashdown made a final play for the 20 per cent of voters still apparently undecided or likely to switch allegiance, a defiant Mr Michael Heseltine stuck to his prediction of a fifth Tory term with a majority of 60 seats.

But party sources last night suggested the game was up, with some estimating Mr Blair's likely majority at between 40 and 60 seats.

With former leadership challenger Mr John Redwood already reportedly on the leadership starting block, the fear is that the party will swiftly implode in a welter of recrimination and speculation about Mr Major's successor.

As Mr Major fought doggedly to the last, Chancellor Kenneth Clarke warned his colleagues against blood letting in the event of defeat.

"If we don't win the election, I think the people who turn to post mortems and scapegoating will make us look ridiculous," said Mr Clarke.

I have been in parties that have lost elections and the thing to do is pick yourself up and work out how you are going to win the next one, and that isn't by having internecine warfare."

And as Mr Michael Portillo, another leadership contender, maintained Mr Major would be returned to power, Sir Teddy Taylor implored him to hang on to the leadership if defeated.

The Tory debate confirmed that they, as much as Labour, would be shocked should Mr Major defy the odds. And while Mr Blair continued his public warnings against complacency, preparations for a hand over of power were continuing apace.