Ireland’s population will reach 5 million by 2014 according to figures released today by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).
This projected growth in population is based on the assumption that recent trends of high inward migration and relatively high fertility rates will continue.
However if migration were to cease and fertility to decline, it would take until 2041 for the population to reach the same level.
The figures are contained in
Population and Labour Force Projections 2011 – 2041, a report published by the CSO today.
Migration assumptions are considered the most important factor in determining population growth.
Older people - those aged 65 and over - will account for more than one in five of the entire population in 2041. There will be between 1.3 and 1.4 million old persons in 2041 compared with 460,000 in 2006.
At the other end of the age spectrum the population aged 5 to 12 years is projected to increase by at least 10 per cent over the next decade, even if migration ceases and fertility declines.
But if current trends of migration and fertility continue, the number of children in this age group would increase from its present level of over 450,000 to 650,000 by 2025.
The labour force is only projected to increase by 0.4 per cent each year until 2021. High inward migration would increase the labour force each year by 1.7 per cent.
The female share of the labour force is projected to remain unchanged at 42 per cent in the period to 2021.