Portillo back in Commons in low poll

Mr Michael Portillo secured his political comeback early this morning, winning the Kensington and Chelsea by-election with a …

Mr Michael Portillo secured his political comeback early this morning, winning the Kensington and Chelsea by-election with a majority of 6,706 over Labour.

For the former defence secretary - whose defeat at Enfield marked for many the defining moment of Labour's general election win in 1997 - it was a better than expected personal result.

On a drastically reduced turnout - the third lowest in the nine by-elections of this parliament - Mr Portillo took a slightly higher share of the vote than the late Alan Clark at the last election. But an estimated swing from Labour to the Conservatives, if repeated at a general election, would make only marginal impact on Mr BLair's Commons majority.

Mr Portillo's victory will be an immediate relief for the Conservative leader, Mr Hague, at the end of a disastrous week which has seen the first real signs of Conservative electoral recovery eclipsed by renewed charges of Tory "sleaze".

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Mr Portillo - one time darling of the Tory right, and Lady Thatcher's anointed - acknowledged that the furore surrounding Lord Archer's enforced resignation as candidate for Mayor of London had added to an already-uphill task in delivering the vote in a constituency notorious for low turnout.

The turnout yesterday was 29.8 per cent, confirming a pattern of voter apathy in by-elections throughout this parliament.

Mr Portillo took 11,004 votes, to 4,298 for Mr Robert Atkinson (Labour) and 1,831 for Mr Robert Brown (Liberal Democrat).

Despite the lack of interest in what had promised to be the most spectacular by-election of the parliament, it was a sweet moment just after 2 a.m. when the returning officer declared Mr Portillo the duly elected member for what remains the Tory Party's 11th safest seat in the country.

Just 2 1/2 years ago a whole nation had seemingly rejoiced at Mr Portillo's humiliation at the hands of an unknown Mr Stephen Twigg.

Now Mr Portillo has become the comeback kid, his return to the political front line unhindered by earlier admissions about his private life.

However - now no longer "the Prince across the water" - Mr Portillo's return might prove a more bittersweet experience for Mr Hague.

The Tory leader's political judgment has come under renewed and sustained fire this week, because he had proclaimed confidence in Lord Archer's "probity and integrity" following his selection last month, and as questions have mounted about the role of the party's treasurer, Mr Michael Ashcroft, and the party's rule on "foreign" donations.

Since his selection for Kensington and Chelsea, Mr Portillo has been at pains to demonstrate his loyalty to Mr Hague - although he noted this week he had not been one of those who had supported Lord Archer's candidacy. He will be circumspect as he makes the expected transition, and quickly, to the Tory front bench.

Even before this morning's declaration he was being touted to replace Mr Francis Maude as Shadow Chancellor and to carry the economic battle to Mr Gordon Brown.

But once there, Mr Portillo's performances will inevitably be compared with Mr Hague's.

All conventional wisdom at Westminster says he would be mad to mount any challenge to Mr Hague ahead of the next election, which in any case the Tories are not likely to win.

But if the opinion polls continue to report a widening Labour lead in the run-up to the election neither he nor Mr Hague will be able to prevent the inevitable speculation about Mr Portillo's place in the eventual succession battle.