IRAQ:Two US assessments of the situation in Iraq issued this week are contradictory, but their combined conclusions are pessimistic, writes Michael Jansen
A US Pentagon report issued this week adopts an upbeat view of the security situation in Iraq, due to the dramatic drop in US and Iraqi military and civilian casualties since the surge pacification campaign was launched in February 2006.
The Pentagon's quarterly assessment, Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq, reports the number of attacks fell from an average of 1,200 per week in June 2007 to 200 per week this June, while civilian fatalities dropped by more than 80 per cent since sectarian conflict peaked in June 2006. Although "high-profile" suicide attacks continue, the Pentagon says these are not followed by sectarian recriminations. "Overall, the communal struggle for power and resources is becoming less violent. Many Iraqis are now settling their differences through debate and the political process, rather than open conflict."
Iraqi rejection of terrorist and random violence and US recruitment of Sunni tribal fighters, dubbed "Sons of Iraq", against al-Qaeda have improved security.
The Pentagon continues to hold that Iran poses a serious threat to long-term stability.
"Iraq is a much better place than it was a year ago across the board, politically, economically and from a security standpoint," Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, observed. "But we are not at the sustainable point yet. We are not at the irreversible point yet."
An annual report also issued this week by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) at the request of Congress begs to differ. It says that only 10 per cent of Iraqi security forces can operate without US support; that the Iraqi government has not implemented key legislation; and that parliament has yet to pass essential measures, notably the law governing exploitation of Iraq's oil resources and legislation allocating revenues from exports.
Ministries are not spending allocated budgets on reconstruction and development, it says. Iraqis suffer from a lack of electricity, water, healthcare and jobs. Oil production has only reached 2.5 million barrels a day, the level during the last year of the former regime.
The GAO says the "New Way Forward" post-surge strategy adopted by the Bush administration lacks clear objectives and does not relate to what is happening on the ground in Iraq. The GAO believes the Pentagon's year-old joint campaign plan, written in Baghdad by the military command and US embassy, "is not a strategic plan; it is an operational plan with limitations". An overall strategy for attaining military, political and economic goals is necessary, the GAO asserts.
Both the GAO and the Pentagon criticise the Shia-led Iraqi government for failing to find a place in the security services for - or to reconcile with - the Sons of Iraq, who have been fighting alongside US and government forces.
There is concern that, if alienated, these elements could be infiltrated by al-Qaeda and other opposition groups or that the Sons of Iraq could take on the Iraqi army once US forces are withdrawn.