1 Cameron gets a majority, becomes prime ministerThe Conservative vote is strengthening, according to the latest polls, but to win a majority, Cameron needs a near clean sweep of the marginals in the midlands and around London that went to Labour in 1997. However, the Liberal Democrats threaten Tory ambitions, as Cameron needs to take nearly 20 of their seats.
The surge for the Liberals means that they will take some marginals and, in other seats, prevent the Conservatives unseating Labour. With a secure majority, Cameron plans to cut spending quickly and impose reforms in public services. However, his MPs will be inexperienced, so discipline could prove hard to maintain amid the toughest cuts in a generation. Many of them are Eurosceptic and will be impatient with Cameron’s desire to avoid rows with EU partners.
2 A Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition, but without Brown as PM
If there is to be a formal coalition of any kind, this is probably the most likely one. Labour is prepared to offer the Liberals voting reform, and though its opening bid – the Alternative Vote – is not enough for Clegg, more concessions are likely. However, Clegg could not do a deal with Brown. First, the two do not get on, and, secondly, keeping Brown in power would be disastrous for the Liberal Democrats’ own future survival. With a new Labour leader, the two parties could form a coalition on the basis that spending cuts should not be made quickly, although ultimately the Liberals want the cuts to go deeper. The history of Lib-Lab pacts does not inspire confidence, however.
3 A Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition
This could happen if Labour is the party to suffer most from the rise in Liberal Democrat popularity, particularly in the populous west midlands. Clegg is closer in mindset to the Conservatives than to Labour, but his rank and file are not, and he would face a fight to get a coalition past them. The Conservatives’ objections to voting reform also lessen the prospects of a deal, and would inject a note of poison were such a deal to happen. Economically, the parties disagree about the timing of spending cuts, though they are in closer agreement about their ultimate scale than are Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Meanwhile, the Conservatives would have to swallow Liberal Democrat Vince Cable as chancellor. Few would bet on a five-year parliament.
4 A Liberal Democrat victory with Clegg as PM
This is the least likely of outcomes, given that the Liberal Democrats would need a huge additional surge of support to overtake Labour and the Conservatives in numbers of seats, given the vagaries of the first-past-the-post system, which discriminates against the party. However, if Labour were absolutely humiliated and both it and the Conservatives subsequently failed to form a government, Clegg could make a case for being allowed the opportunity to try to form an administration. A long shot.
5 A minority Conservative government, with Liberal Democrat support from the backbenches
This is perhaps the most likely outcome of all. For it to happen, the Conservatives would need to be within shouting distance of a majority, leaving Cameron with the ability to play the Liberal Democrats off against smaller parties in the House of Commons, such as the Scottish and Welsh Nationalists, and the Northern Irish MPs. Cameron could offer the Liberals concessions on some points, but not on electoral reform, leaving Clegg with the responsibility for causing a second election. It is a possibility for Cameron as it would mean he could call a general election at the first sign that he could improve on his numbers.
