Spending on social welfare before any Budget increases is expected to be £5,162 million next year. This represents a rise of 3.4 per cent on the expected figure for this year, which will be lower than originally estimated because of the fall in unemployment.
The Estimates for next year give no clues as to what will happen in the Budget. They are based on the cost of keeping services and payments at their present levels.
Next year's spending comes from two sources. The taxpayer will fund £2,761.4 million through the Exchequer. This is largely for means-tested payments for people with insufficient PRSI contributions to qualify for benefits.
The other source is the £2,370 million in PRSI contributions made by employers, employees and the self-employed. Free electricity, free telephone licences and other free schemes have, up to now, been paid for by the Exchequer - i.e., the taxpayer. But in future where these are used by people receiving contributory benefits (contributory old age pensions, for instance) the cost will be met out of PRSI contributions. This will cost £43 million next year.
The Justice Commission of the Conference of Religious of Ireland said yesterday that the Estimates "show that some progress will be made on tackling poverty and social exclusion in the year ahead.
"However, they also show that a long road remains to be travelled before Irish society will have addressed these issues effectively." As an example, said CORI, spending on local authority, social and affordable housing will provide for 8,500 accommodation units next year, but "there are close to 50,000 households on waiting lists at present" and "there will be very substantial numbers of families on waiting lists for years to come". It was essential that decisions taken by the Government in the Budget reduce the gap between poor people and the rest of society, CORI said. This should include a substantial package to tackle social exclusion, major progress on equality and concrete developments in the area of childcare.