EU: The Taoiseach's choice of Ireland's next EU Commissioner is complicated by the continuing uncertainty over who the next President of the European Commission will be.
As President of the European Council charged with finding consensus on the position, the Taoiseach cannot nominate and campaign for an Irish contender.
If another member-state or states put forward an Irish name, the Taoiseach has said he will support him or her. If this Irish person is chosen to be Commission President, he or she will then be the Taoiseach's nominee to the Commission.
Pat Cox is the most frequently mentioned possible Irish President of the Commission, and the only one who has declared any interest in the job. Currently the Belgian Prime Minister, Mr Guy Verhofstadt, and the British Commissioner, Mr Chris Patten, are the most serious contenders for the post. However neither has emerged as a star candidate.
It is only in this context that Mr Cox's name has emerged. The German Chancellor, Mr Gerhard Schröder, remarked on Tuesday that the next Commission President would have to have substantial administrative experience (Mr Cox does not).
However, with no clear frontrunner with such experience emerging, Mr Cox remains in the picture with an outside chance.
The name of Peter Sutherland has emerged in some discussions too. Several EU Enterprise Ministers who met in Dromoland Castle recently said that the former Competition Commissioner would make a good Commission President.
He was Competition Commissioner from 1985 to 1989, earning a reputation as an achiever, driving deregulation in aviation and other areas.
Now non-executive chairman of BP and Goldman Sachs, he has remained involved in European affairs and world trade issues and is known to several of the EU heads of state and government.
Then of course there is the Taoiseach. However his denials of interest in the job, on and off the record (including in the Dáil on Tuesday), are very convincing.
Presuming that no Irish person becomes Commission President, the next EU Commissioner is almost certain to come from among the present Cabinet.
The Taoiseach wants to reshuffle his Ministers in the autumn, retiring some and promoting a few new people. The departure of one Minister to Brussels would make the job that bit easier.
The Minister for Agriculture, Mr Walsh, is the only Cabinet Minister known to have an interest.
Were the agriculture commissionership to become available, it might be an obvious match.
However, both he and the Minister for Defence, Mr Smith, have had long Cabinet careers, and some of the Taoiseach's advisers believe they could be retired from Cabinet without being given such a major post.
The other possible contenders have all indicated they are not interested, but people's minds can be changed.
If the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, wanted to go to Brussels, this would be the key to a major Cabinet reshuffle, freeing up the most senior Cabinet position.
The Tánaiste, Ms Harney, insisted again yesterday that it was not for her.
No other names have emerged.