Pressure mounts for new ceasefire

THERE was to be no rush to consummation. No joyful celebration of a renewed peace process

THERE was to be no rush to consummation. No joyful celebration of a renewed peace process. While the two governments agreed the way forward and the people of these islands sighed with relief, republican and unionist leaders sulked and brooded.

"Sceptical" and "suspicious" were the words used by Sinn Fein in reacting to the Downing Street communique. These were time-buying expressions, designed to create space in which the party could" explore the form and content of the proposed elective process and to guard against unidentified pitfalls.

Erecting a barrage of verbiage against public demands for an immediate IRA cease-fire, Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness discovered new preconditions where there were none worried about the intentions of perfidious Albion and intransigent unionists; and complained about being excluded from ministerial contact.

Behind the rhetoric lurked a different reality. To all intents and purposes, the IRA campaign had been put on hold. There, was no announcement of a formal ceasefire.

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But, so long as the bombs remained unprimed, there was no need for one. The two governments could not be seen to shut off the IRA's campaign at will. Such a perception would weaken the IRA within the republican movement and shift the balance of power towards the political wing.

Some indication of the seething debate now taking place within the republican movement is evident from the letters column of An Phoblacht, where outright criticism is expressed of the IRA leadership for breaking the ceasefire and for damaging the credibility of Sinn Fein.

John Hume and Mr Adams sought a joint meeting with the IRA leadership, as if they were equally distant from that body. And they called for full ministerial contact with Sinn Fein in advance of an IRA ceasefire. Elsewhere, Mr Adams and Mr McGuinness continued to insist that Sinn Fein and the IRA were separate, rather than, semi-detached, structures.

George Mitchell's report recommends the disbandment of all paramilitary organisations and total arms decommissioning as part of an agreed political settlement. But the IRA is reluctant to take the Semtex out of politics. It wants to see the terms of a political settlement first. And it is highly suspicious of the Mitchell report.

SINN Fein and the IRA are wary of the governments' new proposals for elections and negotiations. A fixed date for negotiations is fine: everything they asked for, and no unmanageable preconditions.

However, June 10th is 31/2 months away, with an unspecified agenda and nebulous, objectives. And who knows what obstacles the unionists might throw up in preliminary discussions or what pressures might be brought to bear on Mr Major in the House of Commons?

So Sinn Fein will box clever. On Monday representatives of the party will turn up at Stormont Castle and present their views to government officials and to any political party that will give them a hearing.

They are opposed to an elective process, but are likely to go along with the kind of index or list systems favoured by the SDLP and DUP. The devil, from their point of view, will be in the detail.

The Northern parties will have to agree, according to the communique, on "the basis, participation, structure, format and agenda of substantive all-party, negotiations". They will also consider holding referendums to support the negotiations, based on a repudiation of violence for any political purpose.

That discussion process will end on March 13th, and the two governments will immediately review the situation. Following that, the British government will bring forward", legislation for a broadly acceptable elective process and, according to the communique, "decisions will be announced, as appropriate, on the other issues".

The timing of all this is crucial. For white the IRA is expected to hold back its" ceasefire announcement in order to assess the possible outcome of the preliminary discussions, it may be forced into action before final decisions are taken.

Mr Adams has been granted a short-term visa to attend St Patrick's Day celebrations in Washington on March 15th. And, whatever about the public relations benefits of having Mr Adams socialising at the White House, there is no doubt among republicans that Sinn Fein's fund-raising programme in the US must be protected. That facility has been withdrawn.

IN moving to safeguard the influence of republicans in the US, the IRA will be driven towards a renewed ceasefire. Rather than risk refusal of the visas and the effect it would have on their most valuable human resource, republicans will have to put their trust in democratic politics and advance to accept the full terms of the Mitchell report.

Already, trouble is brewing. While Ian Paisley declared he would not even negotiate with fully disarmed republicans, David Trimble had committed himself to talks with Sinn Fein, in the aftermath of elections and an IRA ceasefire.

Having failed to impose his 90-person election model on Mr Major, however, Mr Trimble is having second thoughts. And he has voluntarily embraced some of the restrictions imposed on Sinn Fein.

The Ulster Unionists will not now formally attend the preliminary discussions which open at Stormont next Monday. However, they will meet officials and ministers to argue their case. And, when formal negotiations open on June 10th, they will be prepared to discuss decommissioning with Sinn Fein.

Dick Spring has already warned against such "cherrypicking" from the negotiating agenda.

In the Seanad on Thursday he said the Mitchell report envisaged "a dynamic interplay between progress on the decommissioning issue and progress on political questions", before adding: "It would be unrealistic to expect that any one issue, or complex of issues, in the negotiations will be fully settled and resolved on its own and in advance of all others."

In other words, the unionists will not be allowed to pursue a single-item agenda. And Sinn Fein will not be allowed to hunker-slide through negotiations in the absence of some decommissioning by the IRA.

While the old arguments over decommissioning are threatening to flare up again, they must not be allowed to distract attention from the big picture: the need for an agreed, negotiated settlement between the Northern Ireland parties.

In that regard, while Sinn Fein and the IRA cleave to their long-term objectives of a British withdrawal and a United Ireland, Mr Adams insists that the Framework Document, with its three-stranded approach to a settlement, must be on the negotiating table. Of such demands are historic compromises made.