Lebanon:Lebanon's parliament is expected to convene tomorrow to begin the 60-day process of electing a new president at a time of escalating tension in this crisis-ridden country.
The decision to meet was announced by former president Amin Gemayel of the governing March 14th coalition, who said the sides had agreed to discuss the election without putting for- ward candidates or casting ballots. He also said that the initiative of speaker Nabih Berri involving the appointment of a consensus candidate remained on the table although, at present, it seemed an unlikely option.
The decision to meet is seen as a positive step by most Lebanese, who feared that parliament might not meet or that the session would be denied a quorum because of a boycott by the Hizbullah-led opposition. It threatened to stay away if March 14th, which has a majority of 68 in the 127-seat house, was prepared to force a vote on coalition favourite, legislator Nassib Lahoud, among its many candidates. Mr Berri, an opposition figure, was expected to meet March 14th head, Saad al-Hariri, before the session to discuss the initiative. But this encounter was postponed by the assassination last Wednesday of March 14th deputy Antoine Ghanem, blamed by the movement on Hizbullah's ally Syria. Mr Ghanem and 39 other members of March 14th fled Lebanon because of the murder in June of another member of the coalition.
Mr Ghanem had been in the country only two days before his death, making others wary of returning.
The March 14th coalition's name came about after a mass rally staged on that date in 2005 to protest the murder a month earlier of former premier Rafik al-Hariri, father of Saad. Seven other coalition figures, five of them deputies, have been assassinated since his death. Fearing for their lives, ministers in the coalition cabinet have been living at the Serai, the Ottoman- era administration building, since Hizbullah's deputies withdrew from the government last November.
Hizbullah pulled out because March 14th refused the movement's call for a power-sharing arrangement which would give it a veto and for the inclusion in the government of the largest mainly Christian party, the Free Patriotic Movement headed by former general Michel Aoun.
Surviving deputies, who believe the assassins are determined to cut down the narrow March 14th majority, are being accommodated in the luxury Phoenicia Hotel which has been cleared of other patrons and surrounded by barriers, security agents, troops and tanks. It is ironic that the Phoenicia was chosen as the deputies's safe house because Rafiq al-Hariri was killed by a massive bomb nearby. His murder started the ongoing crisis.
The presidential election and the crisis are expected to drag on until the November 24th deadline when the incumbent Émile Lahoud is set to step down. The election process has deepened the divide between the government, which enjoys the backing of the US, and the opposition, supported by Syria and Iran.
If the two sides do not reach an accommodation, it is feared that Mr Lahoud could appoint a government to rival that under March 14th premier Fuad Siniora. External mediators Saudi Arabia, the Arab League, UN secretary general Ban Ki Moon, and lately French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner are pressing for a consensus candidate from neither of the contending parties.
The most recent opinion poll showed that 60.5 per cent of Lebanese prefer a neutral figure. However, the US, which originally proposed this solution, has changed its mind. The US no longer wants a consensus candidate because it is not prepared for a compromise with Hizbullah and, its ally, Syria.
Dr Sofia Saade, an academic and author, said: "We have to look at the big picture. The US is on the offensive in the region. In the end, whatever happens will be decided by the US."
Washington no longer favours the traditional Lebanese "no victor, no vanquished" formula for settling disputes.
The Bush administration "wants a victor". Its objective is the destruction of Hizbullah, considered a threat to Israel. Washington knows that Hizbullah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah refuses to contemplate civil war, so the US has been "pushing the situation to the brink".
Dr Saade and Abdo Saad, a pollster and analyst, agree it is likely the sides may decide not to elect a full-term president now. Instead, they may go for a stop-gap measure - the appointment of a two-year president or of a neutral interim prime minister over a unity government.