ITALY: Romano Prodi is seeking a decisive victory tomorrow in a US-style primary election that will choose the Italian centre-left opposition's candidate to unseat Silvio Berlusconi as prime minister.
Mr Prodi (66) the former European Commission president, is expected to win the primary comfortably, for his six opponents either lead small centre-left political parties or are virtually unknown.
But what will matter most, for the purposes of next April's general election, is the margin of his victory, as Mr Berlusconi attempts to sow disarray in the opposition by changing Italy's electoral system.
Anything less than 50 per cent of the vote will raise doubts about the faith of centre-left supporters in Mr Prodi's leadership, and about his ability to unify the opposition's many different parties.
Mr Berlusconi's forces on Thursday rammed an electoral system reform through parliament that abolishes British-style constituency contests and returns Italy to the system of full proportional representation, with seats distributed to parties and party coalitions.
The change poses a particular problem for Mr Prodi, who does not belong to any centre-left party and was hoping to keep it that way in next year's election by winning his own seat in a parliamentary constituency.
The electoral reform is expected to become law after it receives approval from parliament's upper house in November. It will oblige Mr Prodi either to hook up with an existing party or coalition, or to form a party or electoral list of his own.
Neither option is welcome to a politician who has tried to appeal to voters as a moderate, statesman-like figure above the hurly-burly of party politics.
Mr Prodi put a brave face yesterday on Mr Berlusconi's stroke, telling a rally in Naples: "We will win anyway, because this country cannot take any more of a government that, apart from having governed badly, is changing the rules of democracy on the eve of the election."
Opinion polls show that Mr Berlusconi and his centre-right coalition are narrowing the big lead that Mr Prodi and the centre-left have held for most of this year.
Mr Prodi's most serious challenger in tomorrow's primary will be Fausto Bertinotti, leader of the hardline Communist Refoundation party, who helped destroy Mr Prodi's 1996-98 government.
Although Mr Bertinotti has no chance of winning the primary, a strong showing on his part would underline how a future Prodi government could be at the mercy of its nominal communist supporters. - (Financial Times service)