EUROPEAN DIARY:The continuing collapse of Labour's popularity in Britain has an important European dimension
THE SPECTRE of a David Cameron-led government taking power in Britain is stalking the corridors of power in Brussels this week and making Europe very nervous as Gordon Brown’s government lurches from crisis to crisis.
The Conservative Party leader is a trenchant opponent of the Lisbon Treaty and has pledged to do all in his power to stop it coming into force across Europe. Last week he published a Tory Bill aimed at forcing the government to stage a referendum in Britain at the same time as Ireland holds its second poll on the treaty – in either September or October.
“By any account, the Lisbon Treaty is hugely significant,” said Cameron on the European election campaign trail, where he repeated his pledge to hold a public vote in Britain. “It is, by all accounts, a constitution. That is why we are making this such an important issue at these European elections.”
In the current Labour-dominated House of Commons a Conservative referendum Bill has little chance of success. But the sight of Brown fighting for his political life following devastating election results is causing EU diplomats to fret just as they put the final touches to the guarantees on Lisbon that Ireland needs before it holds a second referendum, most likely in October.
The big concern is that if Brown is forced to resign in the coming days any new Labour leader would have to hold a general election before Lisbon can be fully ratified and enter into force. Brown inherited the post of prime minister from Tony Blair without ever having to win an election and many analysts predict a new leader would simply have to go to the people.
“My instinct tells me that any new leader, such as Alan Johnson, wouldn’t want to hold an immediate general election because he needs to let people know what he is about. But he also wouldn’t leave it too long to lose the honeymoon period that comes when he takes over,” says Neil O’Brien, director of the British centre-right think tank Policy Exchange.
“This would mean a September or October election could be on the cards in Britain.”
The prospect of a British election, which Cameron’s Tory party looks sure to win, taking place shortly before an Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty fills supporters of the reform treaty with dread. Many believe it would hand Cameron the perfect opportunity to kill off the treaty, which requires all 27 EU member states to ratify it before it can enter into force and become law.
“There is no doubt the British public would vote against Lisbon. Most people have been completely indoctrinated against the EU since their schooldays and the media is hostile to Europe,” says Hugo Brady, analyst with the London-based think tank Centre for European Reform.
A British No vote in a Tory-inspired autumn referendum would give Cameron the pretext to try to annul Britain’s ratification of Lisbon by withdrawing its articles of ratification, which have been deposited in Rome. This would enrage France and Germany, but there is little they could do if Lisbon is not yet in force.
The legal and political situation is less clear if Cameron does not win power until after the treaty is ratified by all member states. By next June – the deadline by which a general election must be held – it is likely that Ireland will have voted Yes and the Polish and Czech presidents will have signed the necessary legal instruments enabling the treaty to finally enter into force.
Cameron warned last week he would “not let matters rest” regarding the treaty in this scenario. But crucially he has not pledged to hold a referendum if Lisbon has been ratified by all 27 EU states. It would prove legally impossible to withdraw ratification after an EU treaty enters into force and Cameron would then face a choice: withdraw Britain altogether, or more likely negotiate a series of opt-outs from several sensitive EU policy areas.
So the future of the Lisbon Treaty comes down to a race against time between Irish, Czech and Polish ratification and the seemingly inevitable assumption of power by Cameron in Britain.
Supporters of Lisbon are praying that Brown can cling onto power until next spring to prevent a Tory-inspired coup against the treaty.
They must also hope Czech president Vaclav Klaus and Polish president Lech Kaczynski – whose Law and Justice Party is in the same group as the Tories in the European parliament – will not drag out ratification further if Ireland votes Yes in October.
But after eight years of tortuous negotiation, referendum rejections and ratification successes, few Lisbon-watchers would bet against a further surprise when it comes to reforming how the EU does its business.