Next time you find yourself stopped in traffic, look to the drivers in front of you, beside and behind you. By the law of averages, only three of the four of you will be qualified to drive a car.
It's an unsettling thought. According to the Department of the Environment, the number of people now driving on Irish roads with a provisional licence is 337,000, compared with 1.4 million with a full licence.
In other words, just over 24 per cent are on a provisional licence, which can be obtained by post for just £12 without any proof of competence to drive.
Not only are there more people now driving on provisional licences, but they are driving on them for longer, with a breathing space of four years before having to take a test. Of the current total of such licence-holders, only onefifth have applied and are waiting for driving tests.
"It's unbelievable that so many untested, unchecked, unsupervised drivers are allowed on Irish roads. Most definitely, it's not conducive to a safe driving environment," says Mr Des Cummins, executive chairman of the Driving Instructors Register (DIR), which has been campaigning since its establishment in 1996 for stricter controls for learner drivers.
He says the problem is basically twofold: first, the "blatant misuse" of provisional licences and, second, anomalies which, for example, allow someone who has just failed the test to drive away from the testing centre unaccompanied.
Under the Road Traffic (Licensing of Drivers) Regulations, 1989, drivers on their first, third and subsequent provisional licences - but not their second - must be accompanied by a qualified driver at all times.
Most learners, however, disregard this condition and treat their provisional licence like a full one, Mr Cummins says.
This problem, coupled with a high test failure rate of roughly 50 per cent and the thousands of "dog licences" issued during the driving test amnesty of 1979, has resulted in a low level of driving competence on Irish roads, he says.
"People need to get it into their heads that a driving licence is not a right. It's a privilege. They think they're entitled to pass the test without any training and once they've done so to let the rules of the road go out the window."
His concern is echoed by other organisations, including the Automobile Association and the National Safety Council, whose chief executive, Mr Pat Costello, says levels of driving competence need to be increased "to help reduce the carnage on our roads".
"It's difficult enough for fully endorsed drivers to handle certain roads and road conditions, let alone for drivers who haven't reached a basic, minimum standard," says Mr Costello.
To date, however, little has been done to reduce the number of unqualified drivers, which the Department admits is relatively high compared to other countries. But even less has been done to enforce existing regulations for learners.
This enforcement issue was noticeable by its absence from the Government's four-year Strategy for Road Safety, published by the Department less than two weeks ago. While it proposes extending on-the-spot fines for the non-wearing of seat belts, traffic light infringements and other offences, it makes no mention of enforcing provisional licence regulations.
In justification, it says: "International analysis of road safety measures suggests that driver training and testing, while important, are not likely to yield accident reduction benefits on the scale of measures to curb speeding, alcohol factors and non-seatbelt wearing."
This view is shared by the Garda's head of traffic policy, Chief Supt John O'Brien, who says there is no conclusive evidence to show that provisional licence-holders are more likely to be involved in road accidents.
"We are concentrating on speeding and drink-driving rather than on something which we don't know will have much of an impact on reducing fatalities and is impossible to police anyway."
With so many provisional drivers on the roads, he says, "it's long past an enforcement issue. We are not chasing people to see if they are on their second, third or fourth provisional. It's just not practical."
Similarly, says Chief Supt O'Brien, gardai are unlikely to prosecute learners who fail to display L-plates or drive on motorways in breach of their licence regulations. It is more likely that they would be cautioned and ordered off the motorway.
He also argues that there is no dramatic evidence to suggest that learner drivers cause more accidents on motorways. The Garda does not keep records of the number of offences committed each year by learners in breach of provisional licence regulations.
However, Ms Gertie Shields, co-founder of Mothers Against Drink Driving (MADD), believes this sort of leniency could encourage young people to think they can break driving laws with impunity.
She claims there is an ambivalence in society towards road safety and says she was disappointed the Government's strategy did not seek to impose more stringent conditions on learner drivers.
"I'd like to have seen us moving towards the measures which have been introduced in Canada, where learners can't take any alcohol at all and can only drive within certain hours and on highways only on certain days. If you go through the provisional period with a zero drinking limit you'll learn not to drink and drive after that," she says.
Such additional controls are supported by the DIR, which has produced a 23-point plan to improve driving standards. On the issue of enforcement, Mr Cummins says the blame doesn't lie solely with the Government or the Garda. "There is a lack of policing by insurance companies also. They should share in the responsibility and clamp down on people driving with provisionals."
Some ask why insurance companies continue to provide cover at all to provisional licence-holders who have failed to pass the driving test.
But Mr Michael Horan, non-life manager at the Irish Insurance Federation, says insurance companies are duty-bound to provide third-party cover for the protection of victims. "If someone has a licence to drive - whether it's provisional or full - then by law he must also have insurance. Otherwise people who are injured through no fault of their own will have no recourse."
He says, however, learner drivers claiming for damage to their own car under a comprehensive policy may not be paid if they are found to be in breach of provisional licence regulations. "Serious questions would be asked by the insurance company if you had an accident on a motorway, or were unaccompanied when you were supposed to be. Some insurers would argue you were driving outside the terms of your policy."
He admits some people abuse the system and, for example, declare themselves a named driver rather than the main driver on a parent's policy. But in the end, he says, "we cannot patrol the streets and ensure people are abiding by what they say on their proposal form. It comes down to the fact that insurance contracts are contracts of faith."
But Mr Cummins is unconvinced by what he sees as buckpassing. "The guards say it's a matter for the legislators. The legislators say it's a matter for the insurance people. The insurers say they're duty-bound to pay claims. At the end of the day we still have far too many people driving around on provisional licences."
