Previous polls in advance of elections have asked people what the big issues are and they say "health", writes Mark Brennock.
An Irish Times/MRBI poll once asked voters would they accept a tax increase in exchange for a better health service and substantial numbers said yes. Government politicians report that they are regularly berated in their constituencies for a lack of Government spending on all manner of things. At his parliamentary party gathering in Sligo a fortnight ago, the Taoiseach mused to the press that despite the progress on reducing the pupil-teacher ratio and achieving other desirable goals, the voters were always asking him to spend more.
However today's Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll shows there is a complete disconnection between voters' often stated wish to see greater public spending on services and capital projects, and their willingness to pay for this. The direct relationship between taxes and public services is at the core of political debate in other European states. Parties to the right of centre argue for lower taxes and smaller state involvement in society: Those to the left argue for higher state spending and social provision, funded by higher taxation.
Here, however, this basic trade-off is not central to political debate. This phenomenon of a perceived disconnection between tax and spending grew during the Celtic Tiger years, when taxes could be cut dramatically while ever-higher revenues rolled into the Exchequer allowing for generous increases in spending. "Tax and spend" has become a label denoting political lunacy rather than a respectable political position.
In this poll the "tax and spend" question was not framed in an emotive way, such as offering a choice between low taxes and improving the lot of the sick or the poor. Rather people were asked a simple question: How would they close the gap between the amount the Government is raising in revenue and the amount it is committed to spending on public services and capital projects.
The answer is clear: Cut spending, borrow maybe, but don't increase taxes. Just 9 per cent went for the option of increasing taxes, 29 per cent opted for increased borrowing with 48 per cent preferring that spending be cut. Some 14 per cent offered no opinion.
There are no significant differences between the supporters of different political parties. Voters choose which political party to support based on a number of factors, but their attitude to the handling of the public finances does not appear to be a major consideration.
Supporters of Fine Gael are most supportive of the spending cuts option, giving another clue as to what went wrong for them in last year's General Election. Then the party managed to position itself as the one offering increased spending on a variety of projects, compensation for Eircom shareholders and taxi drivers, as well as tax cuts. It is not a message that would have appealed to its fiscally-cautious voters, who already have a financial stake in society and were concerned to retain its future value.
Fine Gael will be pleased at the finding in this poll that its decision to call for the non-payment of the benchmarking pay awards to public servants has gone down well with its own voters in particular, but also with others.
Overall a greater number (43 per cent) favours the payment of the benchmarking awards to which the Government is committed. However some 37 per cent are against with 20 per cent expressing no opinion. The awards will cost €1.1 billion, half of which is due next year.
The fact that 47 per cent of Fine Gael's own supporters and well over a third of supporters of all other parties want the payments withheld suggests that Enda Kenny's decision to take a strong position on the issue was not such a madcap idea after all.
With the negotiations between spending Ministers and the Minister for Finance well underway on how much money they will each be allocated next year, these poll findings suggest that despite the criticism they will hear of any further spending cuts and postponement of capital projects, a substantial number of voters finds such action preferable to the alternatives.