MEXICO: A line of armoured vehicles waits outside Mexico's Congress building. Most are brand new and have never seen action. But many Mexicans wonder if their menacing presence is a harbinger of this divided country's future.
Federal authorities deployed the tanks to prevent supporters of left-wing presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador from shutting down Mexico's legislature to pressurise the Federal Electoral Tribunal to order a full recount of all 41 million votes in this country's disputed July 2nd presidential election.
Last Tuesday a street battle erupted outside the Congress building when federal police arrived to disperse Lopez Obrador's supporters. A handful of congressmen were bruised in the melee. "What happened at the Legislative Palace may be a rehearsal for what we can expect after the tribunal renders its final decision," said analyst Leo Zuckerman. "Lopez Obrador knows he won't win before the tribunal . . . What he is trying to accomplish now is to start a social movement."
The tribunal's seven judges began meeting privately last Thursday to debate the results of a partial recount of four million votes. They have until early September to declare a winner, but a decision is expected sooner.
Conservative candidate Felipe Calderon led Lopez Obrador in the initial count by 244,000 votes. According to news reports and figures provided by the two campaigns, the partial recount will narrow Calderon's lead - but only by 7,000 to 13,000 votes.
Legal experts say the tribunal is not likely to order a full recount, although the judges could annul the election and order a new vote for next year.
Some members of Lopez Obrador's left-wing Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) have said they will launch a sustained, nationwide programme of civil disobedience if the tribunal declares Calderon the winner.
As the election saga reaches its endgame, there are indications that some members of the PRD would baulk at taking the radical actions others in the party favour.
Lopez Obrador's supporters have shut down Avenida Reforma, the city's central axis, since July 30th. Mexico City's notorious traffic has worsened significantly, turning even simple commutes into gridlock nightmares. Many residents feel the capital is being held hostage by Lopez Obrador and his supporters. Even his longtime backers have said the decision to blockade the capital city's streets has been a grave political mistake.
The street barricades are seen as a political disaster for Alejandro Encinas, the outgoing mayor of Mexico City and a close Lopez Obrador ally.
Encinas' approval rating has plunged in opinion polls since the protest movement began.
Encinas controls Mexico City's police force - rather than reopen the streets, the officers appear to be acting as the protesters' security guards.
Lopez Obrador said on August 13th that the street barricades would stay in place during President Vicente Fox's state of the union speech on September 1st and during Mexico's Independence Day celebrations next month.When Calderon and Fox said preventing the Independence Day celebrations from going forward would be an assault on Mexican patriotism, Encinas responded that the barricades might be lifted temporarily to allow the traditional military parade.
- (LA Times-Washington Post service)