ANALYSIS: Frances Fitzgerald should be able to hold her seat, but it will not be plain sailing, writes Eoin McVey.
It's one of the smaller constituencies in the State and one of the wealthiest. It sent to the Dáil two Taoisigh in John A. Costello and Garret FitzGerald. It elected with pride politicians as different as Seán Moore and Noel Browne. It dislikes re-electing all the sitting TDs and usually doesn't. It used to be a Fine Gael stronghold but now it is anything but.
In 1997, Fianna Fáil's Eoin Ryan topped the poll and was followed home by Fine Gael's Frances Fitzgerald and Labour leader Ruairí Quinn. The fourth sitting TD, Michael McDowell of the Progressive Democrats, lost out to the Green Party's John Gormley, who slid in with 27 votes to spare on the 11th count.
The issues this time around are national and local. Health, education and childcare come up regularly but candidates are just as likely to be asked about traffic, speed ramps and, in Ringsend, about the proposed incinerator which has Fianna Fáil on the back foot.
Ruairí Quinn, who not long ago used provide much count-centre amusement by the way he clung on to the last seat, seems certain to top the poll. Second place is likely to go to Eoin Ryan, but John Gormley may run him close.
Mr Gormley pulled in over 4,000 first-preferences last time and is certain to do better next week. Hard working and amiable, he has built up his profile considerably.
The critical struggle will be for the fourth seat. History suggests this should belong to Fine Gael and Frances Fitzgerald but it is far from plain sailing for her.
Ms Fitzgerald is something of a mystery. The Fine Gael vote in all of Dublin may be under pressure recently but she has represented the constituency for 10 years and should have established a solid base by now. And yet, she hasn't. Her allies say she should not have taken the defence brief. Her critics say that continuing to live in Castleknock has diminished her presence and dismayed the local Fine Gael organisation.
She makes great cross-party play of being the only woman ever elected for Dublin south-east. Indeed, she is the only female candidate this time around. But that only works for so long.
Her running mate is the environmentalist and barrister Colm MacEochaidh. He has had little time to bed himself but is a solid candidate. He is also unashamedly liberal and Ms Fitzgerald herself would be on the liberal wing. Ordinarily there would be nothing amiss about an all-liberal ticket but it ignores the fact that in 1997 Fine Gael's Joe Doyle, seen as a conservative, pulled in over 4,500 first preferences.
Michael McDowell will have his eyes on Joe Doyle supporters, and as a former Fine Gael director of elections for South East, he'll know where to find them. It is generally believed that for every three votes Mr McDowell garnered in the last two elections, he got two from Fine Gael supporters and one from Fianna Fáil. If anything, he will rely on Fine Gael switchovers even more this time.
Mr McDowell played a blinder in the Dáil from 1992 to 1997. He has a sharp mind and an even sharper oratory. On merit alone, he belongs in the Dáil permanently, but merit alone doesn't get someone elected. The PDs have little constituency organisation but the "Friends of Michael" hit the ground running and they are spending an enormous amount of money.
Mr McDowell also benefits from his profile as Attorney-General. It came as no surprise when his campaigning quickly distanced him from Fianna Fáil but he may yet come to regret his over-the-top comments on Stadium Ireland.
Mr McDowell, alone of the candidates fighting for the fourth seat, is facing a considerable transfer deficit. He is not now likely to pull in much of Eoin Ryan's surplus and there will be great interest to see where the votes for the other Fianna Fáil candidate, Chris Andrews, end up. Cllr Andrews, who has been working the constituency virtually full time since 1999, also hopes nab the fourth seat.
Other candidates are Daithí Doolan of Sinn Féin, Tom Crilly of the Workers' Party, Shay Ryan of the Socialist Workers Party and Independent Norman Gray.
It is almost inconceivable that Fine Gael would not have a Dáil seat in South East. Frances Fitzgerald will probably hang on but she will have the fight of her life.
Prediction: FF 1, FG 1, Lab 1, Green 1. No change.