The dissident republican group responsible for the Omagh bombing atrocity was last night expected to announce an immediate and complete cessation of its campaign of violence, despite signs of internal divisions.
After intense discussions in the face of national and worldwide outrage at the Omagh bomb, the group, calling itself the "Real IRA", is believed to have decided to announce a ceasefire.
The expected announcement comes in the face of co-ordinated security operations against its members in the Republic and Northern Ireland, and reports of threats from Provisional IRA members angered at the effects of the Omagh bombing.
However, Garda sources yesterday remained sceptical about the imminent "Real IRA" ceasefire announcement and believe that some members of that organisation are still opposed to the idea and want simply to have a period of inaction before remounting a terrorist campaign.
News of the imminent announcement came hours after the Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister, meeting at Ashford Castle in Co Mayo, had jointly called again for a permanent ceasefire from all paramilitary groups in the wake of the Omagh bombing, which killed 28 people and injured over 200.
Mr Ahern and Mr Blair are now to put intense pressure on Sinn Fein and the Ulster Unionist Party to make key political concessions in advance of President Clinton's visit to Ireland next week, it emerged after their meeting.
During two hours of talks in Cong, Mr Ahern and Mr Blair agreed a detailed strategy to try to ensure that political progress is made after the Northern Ireland Assembly meets on September 14th. While not giving details, both leaders expressed optimism afterwards that this strategy would work.
In particular they agreed a series of moves which, they believe, will lead to the formation of the new Northern Ireland executive some time after that meeting. The main obstacle to the formation of the executive is the clear indication from the Ulster Unionist Party that its members will not sit in an executive with Sinn Fein members until there is progress on weapons decommissioning and a clear indication from the IRA that the violent conflict in the North is over.
The Government will now put intense pressure on Sinn Fein and the IRA to make a significant move on the issue of weapons decommissioning, and to make some form of declaration that could satisfy the UUP.
The British government is expected to seek to persuade the UUP to accept such moves from the republican movement and to agree to the formation of the executive as provided for in the Belfast Agreement.
"Like any agreement, people have to move a bit and people have to be reasonable," Mr Ahern said after yesterday's meeting. "If people stick rigidly to their stated position of history then we will never do it."
Saying he was optimistic that this political hurdle could be overcome, Mr Ahern said: "I think today we have cleared in our own minds how we can endeavour to do that. It will not be done easily but I think we are clear on the strategy that we have to operate together, otherwise we will not make progress."
Mr Blair also said they had agreed a strategy and he was optimistic for its success. He indicated that he saw a move on weapons decommissioning as essential for progress. "What is important is to build confidence and the best way of building confidence is if the agreement is implemented. Decommissioning is part of the agreement.
"It is important that we enable a situation to develop where people have the confidence to sit down and agree to run the government in Northern Ireland in the right way for the people there. Obviously the progress that we hope to see over this next period of time will result in people believing that they can have that greater confidence on all sides of the community in Northern Ireland."
There was speculation that while the rules of the Belfast Agreement entitle Sinn Fein to two seats in the executive, the exact portfolios the party may receive have not yet been decided. A trade-off which ensures they receive significant posts in exchange for substantial moves on the weapons issue could be considered, according to the speculation.
It is understood that the two governments see the date of President Clinton's arrival in Ireland next week as an initial informal deadline for some progress. Mr Clinton will arrive in Belfast next Thursday and travel to Omagh and then to Dublin that night. He will spend Friday in Dublin and visit Co Limerick as well as playing golf in Ballybunion on Saturday before leaving for the United States.