Iraq: The majority of members on the Iraqi governing council are exiles, which could be risky, writes Michael Jansen
For the first time in Iraq's long history, the country's governance has been entrusted to a body of men and women selected by religious and ethnic affiliation.
Some Iraqis fear the 25-member governing council proclaimed last weekend could exacerbate tensions between communities and undermine national unity, leading ultimately to fragmentation of the country into three or more parts.
The head of the US occupation administration, Mr Paul Bremer, opted for this formula and negotiated the council's membership with Iraqis whom he, not the Iraqi people, chose. This process was dominated by figures from former exiled opposition groups which have communal colourations. Thirteen councillors belong to these groups and 12 are domestic figures.
Tipping the balance in favour of exiles is risky because they are notorious for not agreeing on policy. The imbalance is neither democratic nor popular. There are about three million Iraqis outside the country as compared with 21 million at home. Iraqis who suffered under the ousted regime are resentful. Few former exiles have popular followings.
Councillors from the Iraq-based pool were chosen mainly because they did not belong to the ousted Baath Party. Its members were excluded from office by Mr Bremer who thereby deprived the country of experienced administrators and technocrats at a critical time.
The council's demographics neither conform to democratic norms nor meet the expectations of Iraqis. In terms of ethnicity, 19 members are Arabs, five are Kurds and one is Turkoman. While this representation roughly approximates the weight of each community in the populace, Washington plays favourites.
It has accepted the fundamental demand of the Kurdish minority that Iraq should be reconstituted as a federal state. A majority of Iraqi Arabs, who are deeply suspicious of Kurdish separatism, oppose a federal Iraq, particularly if the Kurds insist on control of Kirkuk and/or Mosul, the main cities in the northern oil field areas.
The Turkomen, who live in this area, can be expected to resist Kurdish rule. Turkey, which considers itself the protector of the Turkomen, says their interests are not adequately represented on the council.
The Turkoman member, Ms Sondul Capouk, is the head of a non-governmental body, the Iraqi Women's Organisation, rather than a communal politician.
Ankara also opposes the emergence of an autonomous Kurdish area in Iraq as this would encourage Turkey's own Kurds to press for self-rule.
With respect to religion, 13 councillors are heterodox Shia Muslims, 10 are orthodox Sunnis (five Arabs and five Kurds) and one is Christian. The Shia majority could lead to tension and dispute. Although Shias now constitute 60 per cent of the population since the advent of Islam in the seventh century, the Shias, as a distinct community, have never played a major role in the governance of Iraq.
At that time Iraq's Shias staged a rebellion against the successors of the prophet Muhammad. The revolt was crushed and the Shias sidelines.
In the middle of the eighth century, Baghdad became the seat of the Islamic Caliphate, an institution ruling the a vast empire with a 90 per cent Sunni populace.
Sunnis continued to hold power under the Turks, the British raj (1920-58) and Iraq's republican regimes. During this entire period, however, individual Shias and Shia tribes played important roles in all aspects of Iraqi life. When the secular nationalist Baath came to power in the Sixties, Shias were recruited by the party.
Among the 55 most wanted Baathists are said to be a number of Shias. Of the council's 24 Muslims, there are a dozen secularists while nine or 10 are members of Islamist parties or have Islamist leanings.
Shia Islamists have a major advantage over all other affiliations because a large proportion of ordinary Shias are devout and follow the dictates of their clerics. The two Shia groups with large followings, the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq and Dawa, were previously based in Tehran and advocate the establishment in Iraq of an Iran-style Vilayet-e-Faqih, rule by theologians.
This is also the demand of Shia militants led by Sayyed Muqtada al-Sadr, a young cleric revered by two million inhabitants of Baghdad's sprawling poor Shia quarter, now named Sadr City.
Finally, only three women represent the female 55 per cent of Iraqis. A fourth woman was dropped from the list of candidates under pressure from conservative clerical and tribal elements.
The council has been charged with setting broad guidelines for the administration, drafting a budget, appointing diplomats and ministers to the provisional government and choosing a commission to draw up a new constitution.
However, the council has little real power, which resides with the occupying power. It remains in charge of security, defence, reconstruction and the oil sector.
In the short term, the council will not be judged by its own performance but on how quickly the US restores law and order, electricity and water and provides food, medicines and employment for the populace.
If Mr Bremer does not achieve major progress soon, the communalist council could collapse before the mettle of its disparate members is tested.