Real referendum battle in the North is being waged within the unionist community

Like the youngster who found the recent film on the Titanic "a bit far-fetched", one has to pinch oneself at times to believe…

Like the youngster who found the recent film on the Titanic "a bit far-fetched", one has to pinch oneself at times to believe that the present dispensation in Northern Ireland is not a wild fantasy.

The long-awaited agreement, subject of so much speculation and scepticism, has not only come to pass but is to be voted on by referendum on May 22nd. If it passes, there will be elections to a new Northern Ireland Assembly at the end of June.

The general expectation at this early stage is that the referendum will secure a majority vote in the North. The question is, how big a majority? Anti-agreement campaigners are already saying a 5545 per cent Yes vote will mean most of the pro-Union community has rejected the deal. That will have a big knock-on effect in the subsequent elections.

But, as of last night, the mood in the Yes camp was confident. The fact that Ulster Unionists on a number of local councils have stood firm for the agreement, even though the MP for the constituency might be saying No, has cheered the pro-agreement camp considerably.

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Their mood was darker last week after the successful anti-agreement rally in the Ulster Hall, in which three Ulster Unionist MPs appeared on the platform.

While the other parties were negotiating the deal at Castle Buildings, the dissidents - under the banner of the United Unionists - were busy preparing their No campaign. Leaflets are being distributed asking the public: "Have You Got a Heart for Ulster?" and offering small badges emblazoned with the Union Flag for a £5 donation.

If these badges start sprouting all over the North, the agreement is in trouble.

Like the media, the pro-agreement parties barely had time to recover from the long Stormont vigil before being thrust into the fray.

The Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble, left for a speaking engagement in the US but now he's back and a press conference at Glengall Street saw him in quietly confident mood.

Polls suggest - Sinn Fein's ambivalence notwithstanding - that nationalists of all stripes in the North will turn out to vote Yes and that even opponents of the deal on that side of the fence will be inclined to abstain.

This enhances the likelihood that the agreement will be passed but the real battle is the "referendum-within-the-referendum" in the unionist community.

Although they are confident, the pro-agreement unionists harbour fears that some calamity could occur which would cause their community to take fright. Senior UUP sources privately expressed concern that the Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, might say something - along the lines of her notorious Belfast Telegraph comments on the consent issue last year - which would upset unionists and lend plausibility to claims that the agreement was a sell-out.

Sinn Fein's claims about the Union being on its "last hinge" are discounted but UUP sources are having bad dreams about someone in the SDLP or one of the Republic's parties claiming, as a leading nationalist did over Sunningdale, that the current package was a Trojan horse to trundle the six counties into a united Ireland.

Despite the general availability of the agreement, its often Byzantine complexity means that even people who read it are still unclear as to its meaning.

Thus, voters are likely to make impressionistic judgments based, in many cases, on who they see supporting or opposing the deal on television. The ultimate position of Mr Jeffrey Donaldson MP is likely to be highly influential, although it did not appear last night that the pro-agreement stance by UUP colleagues on Lisburn Borough Council had allayed his doubts.

The pro-agreement votes on Lisburn, Larne and North Down councils - but not Castlereagh, in Mr Peter Robinson's constituency - have encouraged Yes campaigners, who also believe moderate unionist opinion was alienated by the presence of vociferous LVF supporters at last Friday night's anti-agreement rally in Antrim, a few hours before the murder in nearby Crumlin of the young Catholic student, Ciaran Heffron.

Despite recent comment on "Paisley the dinosaur", it would be naive to write off the DUP leader as a waning influence.

The present writer attended the press conference at Stormont where the Rev Ian Paisley was heckled by loyalists - those who saw it on television concluded Dr Paisley was a spent force but it did not feel that way in the room. Perhaps the camera does lie sometimes.

The slowness of the Yes campaign in getting off the ground reportedly caused some anxiety at Northern Ireland Office level. Last Monday saw the start of the non-party Yes drive with a carefully-staged performance at the Europa Hotel, where John and Jane Citizen stepped forward to give the Good Word.

Mr Robert McCartney has sought to cast doubt on the non-party group's independence but, either way, it will be a huge challenge to motivate the North's people in a positive direction after all the years of saying No.

There are recurrent reports that grassroots unionist voters are anxious to grasp the prospect - if it is a real one - of peace and stability for themselves and their children.

The main anxiety in this sector of the public is the issue of prisoners. The notion that convicted killers could end up walking the streets within two years is very hard for many folk, particularly but not exclusively in the pro-Union community, to stomach.

Nevertheless, the indications now are that the agreement will be approved by a respectable majority provided its supporters keep a cool head and a well-buttoned lip.