THE last comparable Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll, four months ago, confirmed that the Government's political honeymoon was ongoing.
During the previous 16 months, the electorate had consistently expressed confidence in its performance; the Taoiseach's and Tanaiste's personal ratings remained exceptionally high, and Fianna Fail support, which had reached an all-time high following the signing of the Belfast Agreement in April, continued to hold.
In more immediate terms, this survey was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, February 23rd and 24th; five days after the Taoiseach's Dail address relating to the bank transfer; 10 days after the Fine Gael ardfheis; and before the Eurostat decision on Government proposals for the two regional authorities was announced.
In the recent past, a number of developments emanating from the tribunals have put the Government on the defensive, and in a number of respects the electorate is now beginning to sit up and take notice.
In overview terms, Government satisfaction ratings have dropped by a whopping 16 points since the October poll; those of Mr Ahern as Taoiseach are down by 11, and Fianna Fail core support by 10 (Table A). Significantly, over the same period Mary Harney's rating as Tanaiste has increased by two points, and the Progressive Democrats have doubled their impact from 2 per cent to 4 per cent. Ruairi Quinn's ratings are up four, while John Bruton remains solid at the October level.
In net party support terms (Table B), Fianna Fail is the main target of electorate dissatisfaction, and is down eight points to 48 per cent, its lowest position since the general election 20 months ago.
Fine Gael would appear to be the main beneficiary and has been restored to its support level at the end of last year. The party's recent ardfheis may also have made a contribution. The Labour Party support, at 14 per cent, represents its highest impact since the election, and also reflects the recent merger with Democratic Left. The Progressive Democrats' 4 per cent support is also noteworthy.
Firstly, it represents the party's highest impact since the election, and may also be attributable to the increase in Mary Harney's personal ratings. Support for the Green Party and Sinn Fein remains consistent.
There are many clear messages in the poll for the party leaders and the politicians, the first being that significant elements among the electorate are not impressed with current revelations in the political arena. The next election, as always, will be won mainly by the behaviour of floating voters, and it is most likely that many in that category have now moved on from being satisfied with the Government.
The downturn in satisfaction levels with the Government, meanwhile, extends across all regions and demographic groups, and is particularly noticeable among the 35-to-64 age group (i.e. the heavy earners and voters). The downturn in satisfaction and support levels brings into focus the recent media reports that the Taoiseach was being urged by some Cabinet members to go to the country without delay on the basis of the then ratings, with the objective of achieving the long-sought majority.
I have very frequently made the point that mid-term support levels are not indicative of the outcome of the next election. In fact, they represents the least relevant of what I see as the three factors which could influence the outcome.
These are:
(a) the circumstances in which the election is called;
(b) the number and party distribution of nominated candidates;
(c) current ratings and support levels.
Many lessons can be learned from the recent past. In the first instance, parties in opposition traditionally start from an advantageous position, and the timing by the Taoiseach is crucial. If the electorate is not fully behind the decision to call an election the negative response will be evident on the day.
In the seven general elections from 1981 to 1997, the outcome has been a change of Government on all occasions except one. The exception was 1992, when Fianna Fail dropped to 39 per cent, its lowest election impact for 65 years, and lost nine seats in the process.
However, following the Labour landslide which delivered 33 seats, Fianna Fail, with Mr Reynolds as leader, went back into government. Before and during the campaign, two Irish Times/MRBI opinion polls showed heavy majorities against holding an election.
The perception surrounding the timing of an election is crucial, and it would appear that in the past adequate consideration was not always given to the reaction of the floating voters. The party faithful will generally remain onside.
The second factor relates to the number of nominated candidates, and applies particularly to the largest two parties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, which normally nominate at least two candidates in all constituencies. It is apparent that the greater the total number of candidates (and particularly non-Fianna Fail and non-Fine Gael), the greater the chances of either party maximising its return of seats to first-preference votes.
In the June 1997 election Fianna Fail, with 39 per cent first preferences, converted to 46 per cent (77) of seats, and Fine Gael on 28 per cent got 33 per cent (54) of seats. These conversions were exceptional, and of course were also contributed to by well-planned vote management on the part of both parties. A similar situation arose in 1987, when Fianna Fail returned 81 seats. The intriguing point is that the influence of this factor is outside the control of all parties.
The third factor, current ratings and support levels, is the least influential since mid-term figures are soft and volatile. There are many instances of Fianna Fail achieving lower first preferences than earlier campaign opinion polls had been indicating.
Some commentators interpret this in a simplistic way, by saying that mid-term and campaign polls overstate support for Fianna Fail, but the relevant point is that figures for other parties, and particularly small parties, tend to be accurate and close to the election result.
One conclusion is that outside of elections, Fianna Fail attracts the oral (as expressed in opinion polls) support of members of the electorate who do not follow through on election day.
Most professional opinion polls accurately reflect the figures on the day, and as time moves on opinions and eventually behaviour hardens. The primary point therefore remains that current figures should not be taken as in any way indicative of the outcome of the next election. The lessons from the past are clear.