CUBA:The resignation of Fidel Castro as Cuba's supreme leader means that changes in the socialist economy he guarded for nearly 50 years are inevitable - but experts say no one should expect too much, too soon.
John Kirk, a Canadian historian and author on Cuba, said: "Don't expect the floodgates to foreign investment to open, much less the appearance of Cuban millionaires. There will be carefully planned measures to make the economy more efficient, and small-scale initiative will be rewarded."
Since taking power in a 1959 revolution, Gen Castro has stuck to a strict state-controlled economy with little room for private enterprise and an aversion to the kind of reforms that brought rapid growth to other communist states like China and Vietnam.
The economy has been in perilous state at times, especially in the 1990s when the collapse of the Soviet Union meant an end to support from a cold war superpower. Shortages of food and other basic goods have been a daily fact of life for Cubans.
Things however have improved since 2004, bolstered by oil-rich ally Venezuela, soft Chinese credits and high nickel prices.
The mounting income has enabled the government to double imports, improve infrastructure, more or less balance its external finances despite a huge trade deficit, pay debts contracted since 1991 and register strong growth, but gross industrial inefficiencies, low agricultural output and poor quality of goods and services persist.
Gen Castro's younger brother, Raúl (76) is likely to be named Cuba's new president when the national assembly elects a new council of state on Sunday, and he is widely expected to make changes to the economy.
As acting president since Gen Castro fell ill more than 18 months ago, Raúl Castro encouraged debate on the country's economic problems and raised the expectations of many Cubans.
There have been no major reforms so far, though, and experts say changes will be slow and steady. "We need time and there is time for transforming the economy, but it must be based on addressing first distortions such as pricing policy and sectors that directly impact the population such as agriculture," Cuban economist Juan Triana recently told a class of university students.
The Communist Party of Ireland yesterday sent an open letter to Gen Castro in Havana saying: "Here in Ireland you have encouraged several generations of Irish anti-imperialists to continue the struggle for our own national independence and for social progress."
The letter, signed by general secretary Eugene McCartan, said in part: "Allow us to express our great admiration for you and to acknowledge the central role that you have played personally in the heroic struggle of the Cuban people to win and secure their national independence and to begin the long journey of revolutionary transformation in Cuba."