ANALYSIS:Tackling poverty is more important than bin Laden's death
THE DEMISE of Osama bin Laden and the rise of secular reform and revolutionary movements in the Arab world have led some to assume that al-Qaeda is finished as a security threat in the region and around the world.
But this assumption is unlikely to be borne out if Arab regimes do not enact major political and economic reforms, and Arab grievances against western powers are not addressed.
Rampant poverty, corruption and injustice have provided fertile ground for the growth of al-Qaeda and fellow fundamentalist (Salafi) groups, which are becoming increasingly assertive.
Salafis are driven by a lack of personal prospects and frustration over powerlessness, particularly among impressionable youngsters who find themselves standing on street corners with nothing to do.
About 60 per cent of the population in the Arab world is below the age of 30. Youth unemployment ranges between 40 and 80 per cent. Arab educational systems have failed, and most young people are given no preparation or training before they enter the job market.
Meanwhile, rising costs of housing and food prices have made it impossible for millions of young Arabs, even those in employment, to move out of parental homes or to marry.
Families with daughters cannot afford dowries, while families with sons do not have funds to provide homes for brides if they marry.
Frustrated young men often turn for guidance to neighbourhood mosques, where ill-educated preachers and clerics with political agendas urge them to join Salafi groups which encourage them to vent their fury against competing communities, individuals or external actors.
What is happening in Egypt is instructive. Although Cairo claims to have crushed al-Qaeda, Salafi groups have taken root in poor urban neighbourhoods and rural areas, especially in the south, where an Egyptian commentator said conditions have not changed since the time of the pharaohs.
The ousted regime attempted to contain the Salafis by playing off Salafi factions against one another and the Christian Copts. But since the fall of President Hosni Mubarak in mid-February, the Salafis have been free to pursue their own ends.
This has led to clashes between Salafis and the Copts, who also have become more assertive.
The Copts are holding demonstrations this week at St Mark’s cathedral in the Abbasseya district of Cairo to protest against Salafi demands for the release of Camilia Shehata, a Coptic priest’s wife who, reportedly, converted to Islam in order to escape her abusive husband.
She and another woman similarly situated have been held incommunicado by the church, angering Salafis, who have also mounted mass demonstrations in the south of the country against the appointment of a Copt as a provincial governor.
Salafis in Egypt and elsewhere have a pan-Islamic agenda. In line with bin Laden’s views, they deeply resent and reject the US occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan and the US presence in Saudi Arabia, the site of Mecca and Medina, Islam’s holy cities.
Salafis also vehemently oppose Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory and Jerusalem – the third holiest city for Muslims.
Consequently, as long as the US remains influential in Iraq, US forces stay in Afghanistan, and Israel carries on with its occupation of Palestinian land and settlement construction, Arab youths, particularly those with no prospects, are likely to join al-Qaeda and similar groups inspired by bin Laden, who is regarded as a martyr and saint by some.
Arab analysts argue that the only way to prevent the rise of new violent groups is to provide assistance to democratic movements that are trying to transform their countries, to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and to end foreign intervention in Arab affairs.
