The massive influx of refugees from Kosovo could upset the fragile political balance in Montenegro and increase latent tensions between the small republic's reformist leadership and the central government of President Slobodan Milosevic.
More than 30,000 Kosovars have arrived since Saturday in Montenegro, whose population is about 640,000. Another 40,000 Kosovars were expected in coming days, according to local police in Rozaje, near the border with Kosovo. "All information we have suggests that this wave will increase," Mr Djordje Scepanovic, the Montenegrin commissioner for refugees, said.
The new arrivals are in addition to about 20,000 Kosovars who have already settled in Montenegro since last summer, and about 30,000 refugees from Croatia and Bosnia, who moved here since the war in former Yugoslavia started in 1991.
The displaced people from Kosovo, most of whom are ethnically Albanian, would radically modify the demographic make-up of Montenegro where, at present, Albanians account for only 7 per cent of the total population.
Also, thousands of new Kosovar refugees, according to the various sources, have been arriving in the last few days in the southern Adriatic port of Ulcinj, where four out of five inhabitants are of ethnic Albanian origin.
Montenegro, with its flagging economy, is in no position to support the refugee influx. Earlier this week, the Montenegrin Foreign Minister, Mr Branko Perovic, called for international humanitarian aid to deal with the crisis.
In an interview with CNN, he said he would call on the European Commissioner for refugees, Ms Emma Bonino, because "refugee camps can be installed for some 50,000 people".
It is estimated that of 100,000 employees in Montenegro, only 30,000 are actually working, while 33,000 are on the republic budget and 20,000 are on minimum wages of about $30, opposition parties said.
There are some 68,000 unemployed and 80,000 pensioners, while two out of three inhabitants receive some sort of state welfare.
The humanitarian crisis that has hit Montenegro immediately doubled the value of the German mark against the Yugoslav dinar on the black market.
The fall of the dinar also risked compromising economic reforms planned by pro-western President Milo Djukanovic, aimed at attracting foreign investment for the privatisation of big companies in the republic.
The Montenegrin government, which has been opposing Mr Milosevic's authority, had hoped the republic would be spared NATO air strikes.
In February, it decided not to allow the Yugoslav army to use its territory for a conflict with NATO. But the military installations in Montenegro were targeted, some of them destroyed, during the NATO air strikes.
Mr Djukanovic called on NATO to halt its operations on Yugoslavia.
"Not only has force not solved the problem, we are now even further" from the solution, Mr Djukanovic said. "In this hell, only the innocent people are suffering."
If their margin for manoeuvre is reduced further, as seems likely, the Montenegrin authorities could find themselves hard pushed to maintain their defiant stand against Mr Milosevic.
Montenegro's government has refused to acknowledge the state of war declared by Belgrade, as well as the break of diplomatic relations between Yugoslavia and the US, Britain, France and Germany.
But the opposition Socialist People's Party of Montenegro, close to Mr Milosevic's Socialist party, has called on the Montenegrin government to "state clearly" whether it supported "collaboration with the aggressor".
Reuters adds:
Germany said yesterday that NATO would keep hitting Serbian targets but might stop bombing Montenegro if it continued to deny support to Yugoslav forces in Kosovo.
The Defence Minister, Mr Rudolf Scharping, said Montenegro had clearly distanced itself from Serbia, its much bigger partner in the Yugoslav federal republic.