Middle East:The US policy of containment and manipulation has not worked, writes Michael Jansen
For Iraqis, Palestinians and Lebanese 2007 was a siege year. In response to car bombings, sectarian killings, and attacks on its troops, the US launched a pacification campaign in mid-February in Baghdad and other Iraqi cities.
The campaign involved the deployment of an additional 30,000 US troops, boosting overall commitment to 165,000, more checkpoints and roadblocks, and the construction of walls round urban neighbourhoods and earthworks round villages. The strategy took time to work, allowing militias to transform mixed neighbourhoods, towns and villages into single-sect areas, swelling the numbers of internally displaced to 2.2 million and refugees fleeing the country to 2.4 million.
Walls, checkpoints and barricades turned the capital into a collection of gated communities where Shias were confined to their quarters and Sunnis and Christians feared kidnapping and murder by Iraqi government gatekeepers recruited from Shia militias and roaming bands of Shia militiamen.
Taxis and bus drivers risked their lives every time they left their quarters, businessmen found they could not function, and children were prevented from going to schools outside their neighbourhoods.
By October the level of violence had fallen but deputy prime minister Barham Salih, a Kurd, observed: "It's more a ceasefire than a peace." Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group said the situation was "extremely fragile. None of the violent actors have either been defeated or prevailed, and the political roots of the conflict have not been addressed, much less resolved".
Iraq hovered on the brink of not one but five violent conflicts between nationalist insurgents and foreign forces, Sunnis and Shias, Shias and Shias, Kurds and Arabs, and al-Qaeda and the rest.
The country was divided into three zones: the dangerous and difficult Red Zone where the vast majority of Iraqis dwell behind walls and barricades, the Orange Zone of caution embracing the three northern Kurdish provinces, and the archipelago of fortified Green Zones where relative security is provided by US and Iraqi troops.
In each of these zones, Iraqis live under varying levels of siege and threat. None of the conflicts have been resolved because the Shia-fundamentalist Iraqi government has refused to bring Sunnis into the circle of power, dissolve Shia and Kurdish militias, and curb the drive for camouflaged independence launched by the Kurds.
The walls erected in Iraq are of the same prefabricated concrete slabs used by Israel for the 360-kilometre wall that snakes across the occupied West Bank, slicing that territory into eastern and western sectors. The wall with its almost 600 checkpoints and barricades, has transformed Palestinian cities, towns and villages into isolated islets in an Israeli sea of settlements and military installations.
The disruption of freedom of movement of people and goods has plunged the Palestinian economy into severe depression. Fifty per cent of the West Bank is off limits to Palestinians, particularly land around 133 Jewish settlements and 105 illegal outposts, housing more than 250,000 settlers.
The situation is even worse in Gaza, surrounded by Israeli fences and troops and cut off from the world since Hamas seized control from Fatah in June. This prompted President Mahmoud Abbas to dismiss the government and appoint an interim cabinet under prime minister Salam Fayyad, a former finance minister who has the backing of Israel and the US. Since then the Palestinian territories have been separated and their inhabitants denied contact with one another.
Israel has tightened the blockade on Gaza, preventing the entry of all but humanitarian supplies. Schoolbooks, medicine, and building materials, and fuel are banned. Sixty-five per cent of Palestinians in the occupied territories live under the poverty line.
The belated US attempt to revive talks between Palestinians and Israelis did not ease the siege and the US call for the establishment of a Palestinian state during 2008 was contradicted by Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert. He refused to set a deadline for a deal and approved the construction of new Israeli housing in a Jerusalem settlement.
During 2007 the Lebanese government and ruling majority were under a siege mounted by the Hizbullah-led opposition to press for a share in policymaking and election of a consensus president to replace Emile Lahoud who stepped down on November 24th.
The siege was manifested by an encampment of thousands of opposition supporters who pitched in December 2006 at the heart of Beirut below the government offices where cabinet ministers were holed up, refusing to grant opposition demands.
The governing coalition was backed by the US and France until Paris was persuaded to support Arab League, Saudi, and Egyptian attempts to resolve the crisis. Consequently, the US capitulated and at year's end, an agreement for the election of Michel Suleiman, the army commander, to the presidency and for a powersharing cabinet was being negotiated by government and opposition. Lebanon's protracted siege appeared to ease.
The US policy of trying to contain and manipulate Iraqi, Palestinian and Lebanese crises did not work during 2007 and, analysts argue, is unlikely to be effective in 2008 unless Washington can compel the Iraqi government to deal with the Sunnis, and get Israel to engage in fruitful talks with Palestinians to resolve the region's main political conflicts.