The NI Secretary of State, Dr John Reid, has raised a serious question mark over elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly scheduled for next May.
In a statement to MPs on the suspension of the Assembly and its power-sharing Executive, Dr Reid repeated that "the election date scheduled for 1st May stands." However, during Commons exchanges he twice signalled fresh elections were not guaranteed, saying that if the present impasse continued into the spring "it isn't easy to see what is achieved by another set of elections."
The DUP deputy leader, Mr Peter Robinson, told Dr Reid it was "time to go to the people and let the parties get a fresh mandate" for negotiations about "stable" structures of government.
However, when the Conservative spokesman on Northern Ireland, Mr Quentin Davies, pressed the Secretary of State to say whether he would call elections even if the Assembly remained suspended, Dr Reid said that, while the election date remained "unaffected" by the suspension announced on Monday, this was "something we'd have to look at at the time if not before."
Asked about Dr Reid's comments, a Downing Street spokesman would only say: "I don't think there's any point in getting into that sort of speculation. We'll cross that bridge when we come to it."
However, the implication seems clear that London has serious doubts about the wisdom of calling fresh elections unless prior progress is made toward resolving the issues which triggered this fourth suspension of the devolved structures.
And Dr Reid was clear yesterday when he told MPs that doubts about the republican movement's commitment to purely peaceful means were central to the political crisis now threatening the survival of the Belfast Agreement.
"There has been much apportioning of blame, and there is no doubt there is a lack of confidence on both sides of the community," he said.
"However, at the heart of the recent political difficulties have been concerns about the commitment to exclusively democratic and non-violent means."
Dr Reid said there was a lack of confidence in both communities. He pledged his own and the Chief Constable's determination to "go wherever the evidence leads" and to use all means at their disposal to counter "a campaign, sometimes murderous in its intent and effect, from the so-called loyalist paramilitaries."
However, while it would be improper to prejudge the outcome of any cases involving criminal trials, he had "absolutely no doubt" that episodes in Colombia and the break-in at the Castlereagh police complex had seriously damaged confidence in the power-sharing arrangements.
And he told the House it would be naïve for anyone to ignore the impact on political and public opinion of the charges brought against republicans, including members of Sinn Féin, as the result of the police operation on Friday, October 4th.
Referring to the ongoing threat assessment in respect of prison officers whose details were obtained as a result of the alleged spying operation, Dr Reid declared: "There is no authority, no legitimacy, no morality and no political basis for anyone, in today's Northern Ireland, to have recourse to violence or paramilitary activity."
He announced that he had asked the Security Service, MI5, to conduct a thorough, independent review of all security procedures in the Northern Ireland Office.
Dr Reid will meet the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, probably next week, under the auspices of the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference.