Relief at nuclear plant shutdown matched by concern over weapons

NORTH KOREA: Deal offers hope pariah state may join international community, writes Clifford Coonan in Beijing

NORTH KOREA:Deal offers hope pariah state may join international community, writes Clifford Coonanin Beijing

A landmark accord after a tortuous round of six-way talks over North Korea's nuclear ambitions has been hailed as groundbreaking and sparked fresh optimism about security on the North Korean peninsula and in the wider East Asian region.

In some quarters, the deal offering energy and other forms of aid in return for North Korea shutting a key nuclear facility at Yongbyon and eventually abandoning atomic weapons, has raised hopes that the pariah state may follow the path of Libya and become part of the international community.

South Koreans and Japanese are breathing sighs of relief that the nuclear threat posed by an unstable regional neighbour may have abated somewhat.

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But relief is matched with caution as significant thorny issues remain unresolved. Some commentators are growling "appeasement".

At the back of everyone's minds is the feeling "we have been here before" - North Korea has seemed to agree after six-party talks before only to do a complete volte-face just days later.

A crucial issue will be whether North Korea will abandon its existing nuclear weapons - the current communique only outlines the terms of a shutdown of nuclear facilities in return for energy aid, but is less clear on the country's existing weapons, which experts estimate to be six or seven.

Nuclear weapons are North Korea's only bargaining chip. It enjoys the powerful status offered by being a nuclear state.

The country is almost bankrupt and faces a food crisis this winter. It has spent huge amounts of resources on developing its nuclear capabilities and means to use them to garner the greatest amount of aid from the other five countries taking part in the talks (South Korea, China, Japan Russia and the US) before it is prepared to give up its weapons.

It also wants international recognition before there can be real decommissioning.

"I'm a bit underwhelmed. But it's one small step forward. I'm disappointed if this is all they agreed to. We're in for many more long and painful negotiations before this becomes more than a piece of paper," said Peter Beck, a Seoul-based Korea analyst with the International Crisis Group.

North Korea is extremely unlikely to give up its entire nuclear arsenal unless it believes the US is sincere in its efforts to improve diplomatic relations between the two countries, switching from what Pyongyang calls a "hostile policy" to "peaceful coexistence".

Analysts believe the agreement is significant as it provides a route for North Korea to move towards nuclear disarmament - but it remains to be seen whether there has been a drastic turnaround in policy.

The deal is expected to improve relations between North and South Korea, even though the two sides remain at odds about how to meet their target of fielding a unified representation at the Olympic Games in Beijing next year.

The South suspended food and fertiliser aid to the North shortly after it conducted missile tests in July and plans to resume aid were shelved after the North's nuclear bomb test in October.

But they have kept certain lifelines open all the time, despite UN sanctions against the North. Two major cross-border joint projects have continued to be built - the Kaesong special economic zone and a tourism project at Mount Geumgang.

A satellite photograph of the Korean peninsula at night suggests why the Stalinist enclave of North Korea seems to be playing ball.

While South Korea is brightly lit by the electric lights of its cities, North Korea is pitch dark.

The North Koreans need energy - they can currently generate about half of their total energy needs of four million kilowatts, according to their southern neighbours.

They need oil, and they also need fertiliser as another food shortage is expected in the coming weeks or months.

The deal will set up working groups expected to discuss ways to normalise relations between the six countries and setting up some kind of permanent peace settlement instead of the uneasy ceasefire that ended the Korean War in 1953.

The joint statement issued after the talks seemed to offer a few signposts, saying the countries would start bilateral talks on establishing diplomatic relations.

This means the US will stop calling North Korea a "state-sponsor of terrorism".

The accord marks a major diplomatic victory for hosts China, which drafted the agreement that US envoy Christopher Hill described as excellent, adding that the North Koreans had gone over every word of the draft.

The deal is a well-timed piece of foreign policy news as far as President Bush is concerned. Iraq is an ongoing nightmare and Middle Eastern tensions are haunting his administration. So some news that one of the countries he named a "rogue state", part of his "axis of evil", is agreeing to at least partially dismantle its nuclear programme is welcome.

However, the outcome is not without its complications. Bush's government insisted it would not reward North Korea for bad behaviour, but in this case it seems their daring nuclear test last October has indeed been rewarded.

There is always a danger that North Korea will see the current agreement as a victory for brinkmanship.

Bush's ally John Bolton, formerly US ambassador to the UN, said the deal made Washington look weak and urged the president to reject it.

Other potential pitfalls include Japan's anger that the deal did not address the issue of its nationals, who have been abducted by North Korea.

"We cannot provide [ energy] aid unless there's progress over the abduction issue," said prime minister Shinzo Abe.