The population of the midlands will fall sharply over the next two decades if nothing is done to promote inward investment and improve the region's infrastructure, research has predicted.
Studies conducted by the spatial planning unit of the Department of the Environment and Local Government show the region's present population of 210,000 could fall by at least 5,000 by 2020 if current trends continue.
If spatial policy is adopted this decline could be reversed and give a population of around 260,000 in 2020. "This course assumes that social, economic and physical infrastructure is developed apace," according to Mr Iain Douglas of the spatial planning unit.
Mr Douglas was one of a team from the unit who visited the region last week to consult local interest groups on the preparation of the national spatial strategy, which aims to redress regional imbalances and achieve a better spread of economic and social development.
Under the National Development Plan 2000 to 2006, the Government mandated the Department of the Environment and Local Government to prepare a national spatial strategy within two years.
"We found the midlands has been losing population and if things continue as they are, with economic development sucked into Dublin, then the population will continue to fall," Mr Douglas said.
"If we take a different approach and if 8 per cent of projected growth is diverted from the greater Dublin area and shared out among the rest of the regions, there will be a significant change in the regions. In the midlands it would mean a complete reversal of depopulation," he added.
However, he pointed to difficulties the region would have to overcome if it were to be in a position to handle more growth. These included better transport connections between towns such as Tullamore and Mullingar and the installation of high-voltage power lines.
Mr Jim Stone, director of the Midland Regional Authority which facilitated the consultation forum, does not agree with the spatial planning unit's predictions on the region's population.
"I know it is a scientifically based study based on births and deaths so I'm not dismissing it out of hand, but if you look at the spread of development from the east to Portlaoise and Kinnegad, for example, that would not seem to strongly support the view that the population would fall," he said.
He said the Midland Regional Authority had been pointing to the region's transport problems for a number of years. "The main difficulty with Ireland is that all roads radiate from Dublin, all motorways start from Dublin. Our secondary road network which links those and links many of the major urban centres is not as urgent a priority. We need now to be turning our attention to those routes," he said.
Mr Stone said there was also a problem with access and parity of access to public transport in some rural towns in the region. "Public transport in Ireland is mainly concentrated in urban areas and that is another problem the Government has to face up to. We have to move to a situation where towns in the midlands are linked together with a proper public transport system."
The spatial plan is due to be completed and presented to Cabinet later this year.