The leaked Pentagon report this week about a build-up of Chinese missiles pointing at Taiwan has highlighted new tensions in relations between the United States and China, supposedly the cornerstone of global peace in the 21st century.
With continuing suppression of human rights in China and an ever-growing trade deficit, the atmosphere of "constructive engagement" which marked the visit to China of President Clinton seven months ago has been soured.
At the heart of the Taiwan issue is a proposal by the US to deploy new missile defences in the Asia-Pacific region, where North Korea is perceived as a real threat. China has repeatedly warned, again as recently as Thursday, that the US should not create a regional antimissile umbrella which would include Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a breakaway province.
It said the US Theatre Missile Defence (TMD) system under consideration - an off-shoot of President Reagan's star wars project - threatened Asian stability and if deployed would severely strain US-Chinese relations. American opponents of TMD argue that it would be seen by the Chinese military as an aggressive instrument of containment.
Beijing says it would also breach the three joint communiques that form the basis of Sino-US relations. Washington has discussed the plan with Japan and South Korea but has not decided on Taiwan, which wants in.
President Clinton is said to be guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, under which the US Congress requires Washington to provide the weapons necessary for the island's defence. Taiwan's case has been strengthened by the findings of a congressional committee that China systematically stole US military secrets.
It is against this background that London's Financial Times revealed on Wednesday that Beijing had deployed more than 100 additional ballistic missiles in provinces facing the island. Quoting military analysts with knowledge of a classified Pentagon report, it said Beijing planned to increase the number of such missiles to 650 over the next several years. China had only 30 to 50 short-range ballistic missiles in its southern regions four years ago when it launched M-9 missiles into waters in the Taiwan Straits to warn the Taiwanese people not to press for independence.
The US Defence Department played down the report yesterday, saying the deployment did not pose a new threat. But senators heard recently from CIA Director George Tenet that Beijing was acquiring air and naval systems intended to "deter the United States from involvement in a Taiwan Strait crisis and to extend China's fighting capability beyond its coastline."
The Chinese missile deployment appears to conflict with recent positive moves in China-Taiwan relations. Mr Wang Daohan, China's top negotiator with Taiwan, is preparing to visit Taipei to begin political talks aimed at eventual reunification. But the talks seem destined to bog down. Taiwan is resisting the political element, insisting instead on only discussing subjects like air piracy and improved communications. With pro-independence opinion possibly hardening on the island, Beijing may see its options for peaceful reunification running out. While the US and EU continue to favour engaging China, the architects of China policy are deeply divided about whether the policy is paying dividends. The issue of human rights in particular troubles many diplomats in Beijing. From 1989 until 1997 the recognised method of registering a protest was through a critical resolution at the annual meeting of the UN Human Rights Commission in Geneva.
This was dropped last year in favour of dialogue, amid signs of good intent from Beijing which included top-level access for UN Human Rights Commissioner Mary Robinson and the signing of a UN covenant on civil and political freedoms. But recently Chinese courts imposed prison sentences of 11 to 13 years on three pro-democracy campaigners in a new crackdown.
The White House opposes going back to the politics of condemnation but both Democrats and Republicans are warning of an "explosion" if it does nothing at Geneva when the next UN session begins on March 22nd. Amnesty International has urged a change of heart, claiming that the "continuing gross human rights abuses and the latest crackdown clearly expose the bankruptcy of the Clinton administration's current policy."
EU countries are not likely to rock the boat. China's bullying of Denmark for tabling a critical resolution in 1997, when the EU could not reach consensus, has scared off small nations. Ireland is still actively pursuing constructive engagement; and a party of Chinese supreme court judges will visit Dublin shortly on a high-level legal exchange programme. But if Washington sponsors a resolution criticising China, the EU attitude could change.
A third issue straining ties between Washington and Beijing is the trade deficit. US Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky warned on Thursday that China would risk being left out of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) for years to come if it did not open its markets. The US and the EU want greater access to Chinese markets in agriculture, telecommunications and financial services, but Beijing protests that it is being pressurised into over-hasty market liberalisation. According to the US the trade deficit with China last year was $60 billion.
The Chinese Prime Minister, Mr Zhu Rongji, is due to visit Washington in April and is expected to meet President Clinton. Both will have to work hard to restore the bloom to the rosy promises of last year.