Construction in Ireland will fall by two per cent, principally in housing sector, according to Patterson Kempster & Shortall’s (PKS) review for 2001.
Housing which accounts for almost 50 per cent of construction output is likely to be erratic during 2002, despite the fact that Government and local authority investment in social housing will grow by 20 per cent.
Lower interest rates and incentives promised in the Budget for the private housing sector are unlikely, it says, to prevent the decline, with projections for new housing projects in 2002 falling by eight per cent.
Growth, however, is likely to resume in 2003 and 2004.
Published annually, the review is widely regarded as a leading commentary on the state of the construction industry.
After seven years of continuous growth, – much of it in double digit figures – the economy and industry began to slow, the report says.
While the first six months of 2001 continued to show real growth, the second half showed a considerable slow down.
As a result, growth 2002 is expected to show decline in the volume of new construction projects undertaken.
The decline, the report says, will be marginal with an expected €14,900m invested in the construction industry by the end of the year.
The volume of civil engineering construction will also rise significantly (+11 per cent), as the National Development Programme continues to progress.
However, increases in public sector investment in health and education are likely to be outweighed by reductions in office building as well as building for retail and tourism.
Putting the three sectors of the industry together - housing, civil engineering, general construction - the PKS projection for 2002 shows a drop of two per cent reduction in the volume of new construction overall.