New methods of recording crime are likely to be recommended by the National Crime Council when it publishes a report on Crime in Ireland in Dublin today. The council was inaugurated by the Minister for Justice last April, with a mandate to consider crime prevention and raise public knowledge of crime-related issues.
The report has been compiled for the council by the recently established Institute of Criminology in UCD, based mainly on existing statistics drawn from the Garda Commissioner's annual reports since 1950. These do not show crimes that were not reported to the Garda or were not prosecuted, such as welfare and revenue fraud and health and safety violations.
The existing statistics are expected to show a rise in crime between 1950 and 1998, the last year examined, but this includes a fall in recent years.
In particular, the number of non-indictable crimes (the less serious crimes usually tried in the District Courts) has been falling since 1984. Most crimes (84 per cent in 1998) are non-indictable.
The number of indictable crimes, most of them against property, has been rising over the past 50 years, and rising faster than non-indictable crimes. These figures include a dip between 1983 and 1987, and a steady fall since 1995.
Three categories of crime that regularly feature in the media - unlawful killings, armed crime and sexual offences - have all increased dramatically since 1950. For example, there were six murders in 1950 compared with 38 in 1998.
However, the level of non-lethal serious violence, which also increased up to the early 1980s, has fallen sharply since.
Armed crime has also fluctuated over the years, probably reflecting changes in the levels of paramilitary and drug-related activity. It increased rapidly in the 1970s, fell throughout the 1980s, rose again in the early 1990s, and has been decreasing steadily since 1994.
Sexual crimes have also shown a dramatic increase, as has already been shown in statistics prepared by the Central Criminal Court. However, it is likely this reflects more a change in the level of reporting of such crimes than an increase in their occurrence.
As has already been reported to the National Crime Forum, which preceded the establishment of the National Crime Council, Ireland has a low crime rate by international standards.
However, this is partly accounted for by the manner in which statistics are compiled, and what are recorded as crimes.
One of the authors of this report, Dr Ian O'Donnell of the Institute of Criminology, has pointed out elsewhere that in Sweden, which has much higher levels of recorded crimes, much of this is accounted for by crimes, such as tax evasion and bicycle theft, not recorded in Ireland.
In Ireland it is estimated that recorded crime represents only about 25 per cent of actual crime.
The Crime Council is likely to recommend, in the light of this report, that the Garda statistics are supplemented by a national crime victimisation survey, and by Irish participation in the International Crime Victimisation Survey.
It is also expected to make a number of recommendations relating to the manner in which the Garda Commissioner's report is compiled and explained.