Among the most unpredictable elements in the Irish presidency is the foreign policy role the Government takes up on behalf of the EU, writes Denis Staunton
The presidency, along with the Commission and the High Representative for Foreign Policy, Mr Javier Solana, represents the EU in dealings with non-EU governments and at summits with the US, Russia and others.
The Government is confident that Ireland's traditionally good relations with the US will help to improve the transatlantic mood after a turbulent year marked by sharp differences over a range of issues, notably the war in Iraq which provoked huge protests throughout Europe. The Irish strategy will be to focus on achieving measurable progress in fields of mutual interest, including the fight against terrorism, while remaining alert to emerging transatlantic disputes that have the potential to escalate.
"Ireland has a good ear for the sounds that come across the transatlantic connection," said one senior official.
The Government hopes to show Washington that an effective EU is in America's interest, pointing to Europe's takeover of a NATO-led peacekeeping mission in Bosnia and the EU's engagement in Africa which could support the Bush administration's commitment of substantial resources to tackling HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa.
Co-operation between the EU and the US is a prerequisite for reviving the Middle East road map for peace, which the Government regards as the only viable policy framework for the region.
The Government's bungled attempt to introduce a UN resolution condemning anti-Semitism has done little to change Israel's perception of Ireland as more pro-Palestinian than most EU member-states. The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, will visit Israel later this month but the most that can be expected from this presidency is that it will maintain EU unity behind the road map.
Elsewhere in the Middle East, the EU will continue to press for a central role for the UN in the transfer of sovereignty to an Iraqi administration and will pursue its policy of critical engagement with Iran, focusing on improving human rights, stopping Iranian support for terrorism and encouraging co-operation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The Italian Prime Minister, Mr Silvio Berlusconi, annoyed many of his EU partners by parading an excessively cosy relationship with Russia's President, Mr Vladimir Putin. During the Irish presidency, the EU will review its relationship with Russia over a range of issues, including human rights and Russia's relationship with its nearest neighbours, some of which will become the EU's neighbours after enlargement.
Last month, the EU persuaded Moldova, one of Europe's poorest countries, to reject a Russian proposal that would grant autonomy to the Moldovan region of Transdniester, where 2,500 Russian troops and 50,000 tons of military equipment are stationed. The EU is expected to draw up an action plan for Moldova, which is in danger of becoming a failed state, within the next few months.
The EU is also concerned about Russia's influence on Ukraine and Belarus, which will be EU neighbours from May, and Moscow's refusal to withdraw its troops from Georgia. The Taoiseach will meet Mr Putin at a May EU-Russia summit, probably in Moscow.
The Government is committed to ensuring that African issues gain a higher place on the EU agenda and the presidency will host an EU-Africa meeting in Dublin in April. Announcing the presidency programme last month, Mr Cowen said that poverty, disease and armed conflicts in Africa are problems that Europe could not ignore. "It is simply not an option for us to turn our backs. We must engage seriously, coherently and consistently with African partners to find comprehensive solutions to these problems."
Among the greatest services the Irish presidency could do for Africa is to help save the Doha round of world trade talks that has been stalled since the collapse of last year's WTO meeting in Cancun. Fairer trade, including an end to trade-distorting subsidies for European producers, could lift millions of Africans out of poverty.
In the Irish presidency programme, which is 30 pages long, multilateral trade policy merits a single paragraph.