NEXT TUESDAY’S Michigan primary may be the most important election of Mitt Romney’s career. He is virtually tied in the polls with Rick Santorum, the former senator from Pennsylvania whose religious fervour often makes him seem like a fundamentalist preacher.
Some question whether Mr Romney could survive the loss of Michigan. With the unlimited funding allowed to “super pacs” under a 2010 supreme court decision, “It’s conceivable that a few Republican power brokers could get together, pull somebody off the bench like [the former Florida governor] Jeb Bush, [New Jersey governor] Chris Christie or [Indiana governor] Mitch Daniels, buy a couple of primaries in the late spring and go for a contested convention,” says Bill Ballenger, a television commentator and editor of the Inside Michigan Politics newsletter.
The Republican establishment is nervous about the possibility of Mr Santorum or Newt Gingrich winning the nomination, because they believe neither could defeat President Barack Obama. If Romney loses Michigan, “They’re going to say: ‘This guy can’t close the deal. He’s not getting it done . . . We’ve got to get somebody else in the race,” Mr Ballenger says.
The four remaining Republican presidential hopefuls were to gather in Mesa, Arizona, for their last debate late yesterday. Arizona will also hold its primary next Tuesday. Mr Romney enjoys the endorsement of Senator John McCain there and will benefit from the presence of a strong Mormon population. But in Arizona too Mr Santorum is gaining on him.
Both candidates will rush back to snowy Michigan from Arizona. “The real contest is in Michigan,” says Michael Traugott, a professor of political science at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.
The winner of the Michigan race will gain momentum for Super Tuesday, March 6th, when 10 states will vote. And Michigan could have a contagion-like effect on neighbouring Ohio, which Mr Santorum has called “the real prize”, and where he leads in the polls.
Even if he loses Michigan, Mr Romney will continue to benefit from a huge war chest and superior organisation. “Santorum really needs the free media coverage he would get out of a win in Michigan to help him on Super Tuesday,” says Prof Traugott.
“If he loses, he won’t be able to run multi-state advertising campaigns.”
Until 10 days ago, Mr Romney had thought he would breeze through Michigan, where he was born, where his father was a popular, three-term governor and his brother Scott remains a prominent lawyer and political figure.
The Romney campaign were shocked to see Mr Santorum shoot past him in the polls, following surprise victories in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. They launched a wave of television advertisements. Some show young Mitt visiting the Detroit auto show with his father George and cruising the streets of Detroit like Clint Eastwood in Gran Torino.
Combined with negative ads portraying Mr Santorum as a big spender and creature of Washington, the counter-attack seems to be working. After placing second in nine consecutive polls, Mr Romney surpassed Mr Santorum in a Michigan poll on Tuesday night.
Over the past six months, notes Prof Traugott, “the rest of the candidates have forced Romney to adopt more and more conservative positions.”
Mr Romney cannot criticise Mr Santorum for the ultra-conservative policies that would doom him in the November contest with Mr Obama, because Mr Romney needs some of those conservative voters to win the primaries.
Earlier this week, Mr Romney – who once said he believed in a woman’s “right to choose,” told a rally in Shelby Township, Michigan: “My vice presidential nominee will be pro-life. If I’m fortunate enough to become the nominee, I will also choose someone who is conservative to the core.”
The tone of the campaign continues to veer rightward. This week, Mr Santorum referred to Mr Obama’s “phony theology ... not a theology based on the Bible.”
His spokeswoman initially said Mr Santorum was referring to the president’s “radical Islamic policies”. She subsequently changed that to “radical environmentalists”.
Mr Santorum said this week that healthcare providers should not be required to pay for prenatal tests like amniocentesis, because such tests identify possible birth defects that can lead a woman to opt for abortion.
Mr Santorum opposes abortion in all instances, including birth defects and rape. He has in the past implied that homosexuality is tantamount to bestiality and that gays should remain celibate.
“Satan has his sights on the United States of America!” Mr Santorum declared in a 2008 lecture that was much quoted this week. “Satan is attacking the great institutions of America, using those great vices of pride, vanity, and sensuality as the root to attack all of the strong plants.”
When asked about the “Satan” quotes in Arizona, Mr Santorum replied, pointing to his heart, “I’ll defend everything I’ll say, because it comes from here.”
Though Mr Santorum strikes many Americans as extreme, he speaks with conviction.
Mr Romney’s recent, much mocked declaration of love for Michigan fell flat. “I was born and raised here,” Mr Romney said. “I love being in Michigan. Everything seems right here. You know, I come back to Michigan; the trees are the right height. The grass is the right colour for this time of year, kind of a brownish-greenish sort of thing. It just feels right.”
Mr Romney continued with a paean to the state’s Great Lakes: “I like seeing the lakes. I love the lakes. There’s something very special here. The Great Lakes, but also all the little inland lakes that dot the parts of Michigan.”
Crucial as Michigan is to the future of the Republican race, it will fall out of the news after next Tuesday.
The state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992, and Mr Obama is likely to win it next November.
His $83 billion bailout of the automobile industry saved Chrysler and General Motors, which are now raking in record profits. All the Republican candidates opposed the bail-out.
“The position of the Republican candidates on the auto bailout has effectively taken Michigan out of contention for the fall,” Prof Trautgott says.