Republican rivals rattled by McCain's resurgence

John McCain's bounce back to win the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday night has blown the race to become the Republican candidate…

John McCain's bounce back to win the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday night has blown the race to become the Republican candidate for president wide open, with no fewer than four credible bids to seize the prize.

The Republican battle is shaping up to be peculiarly unpredictable for a party that usually expects to have an heir apparent emerging at this stage.

McCain now joins Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani in the ranks of those who may yet clinch the nomination. His revival as a serious contender is a remarkable achievement bearing in mind the implosion of his campaign last year as a result of his support for a surge in troop numbers in Iraq and for an amnesty for millions of illegal immigrants.

Some commentators drew ominous conclusions from the open season among Republican contenders. "Romney can't win, Huckabee can't win, McCain can't win, Giuliani can't win - the dynamic is you have a bunch of candidates who can't win," Rick Santorum, a former Republican senator, told the New York Times.

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But Stephen Hess, of the Brookings Institution in Washington, said the wide competition would only benefit the party. "This is by no means a bad thing. This is a party for whom people do not have much enthusiasm at the moment, and a lively race keeps them on the front pages."

The candidates are now scrambling for position in different directions. Romney was yesterday in Michigan where, having already suffered two humiliating defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire, he must win next Tuesday if he is to avoid being seen as fatally wounded. He will draw on his huge personal wealth and the power of television advertising and direct mail it gives him to reach out to potential supporters, hoping the fact that he is the son of Michigan's popular former governor will act in his favour.

McCain is also gunning heavily for Michigan, having had unexpected success there in 2000. The state allows independents to vote in the primary, which suits him; in several later contests only card-carrying party members will be allowed to participate.

According to Hess, McCain's comeback is partly explained by the fact that the surge policy in Iraq which he backed appears to have had some impact in lessening violence. The relative calm in Iraq has meant the political focus has swung away from the war and on to the economy.

That has also played against the fortunes of Giuliani, who had a commanding lead in the national opinion polls for many months but is now ailing. Giuliani is focusing on Florida on January 29th, in the hope it sets him up for Super Tuesday on February 5th.

Huckabee suffers from a lack of cash and organisation. He is homing in on South Carolina, which votes on January 19th, where there is a large minority of evangelical Republicans who may swing to him as they did in Iowa.