Republican 'turmoil' seen as being behind IRA warnings

The British and Irish governments believe that a hardening of attitude in the IRA leadership prompted the two uncompromising …

The British and Irish governments believe that a hardening of attitude in the IRA leadership prompted the two uncompromising statements from the organisation this week, according to well-placed sources.

They are convinced, however, that the IRA has no plans to deviate from the peace process strategy of Mr Gerry Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness, notwithstanding the veiled threat of a potential return to "war" by the IRA in its statements.

"There is a degree of turmoil in the movement and these statements and the warnings from Gerry Adams are not simply a case of sabre-rattling," said an informed official source. "But we still don't think the IRA is planning to go back to war, especially considering 9/11 and the fact that it would be disastrous for the republican movement's political project," he added.

The Taoiseach yesterday noted "the distancing of Sinn Féin's comments from the IRA statements" in recent days. The governments believe the collapse in December of the negotiations aimed at securing a comprehensive agreement caused some damage to the solidity of the Adams-McGuinness leadership, providing some encouragement to more "hawkish" republicans at army council level, sources said.

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"One good theory for the robbery is that it was to provide a morale boost for republicans after the failure of the talks," one insider said. "I don't think, however, the IRA calculated just how much damage it would do politically."

Fine Gael leader, Mr Enda Kenny, also remarked on the possibility that the traditional unity within the republican movement could have weakened. It appeared Sinn Féin's leadership "is either unwilling or unable to interpret the latest statement from the IRA," he said.

The Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister are now hoping that after the anger of this week, the leadership of Sinn Féin and the IRA will "cool down" and take time to reflect. More republican fury is likely to be vented next week when the report of the Independent Monitoring Commission into the Northern Bank robbery is published. The report, which was presented to the governments on Thursday, has accepted that the IRA carried out the raid.

The US State Department said yesterday the decision by the IRA to withdraw last year's offer of disarmament was "unwelcome". "The statement on February 2nd by the Provisional IRA that it is withdrawing its offer to disarm is unwelcome," an official said.

"We share the view of the British and Irish prime ministers that the continuation of paramilitarism and associated criminality remains the central obstacle to a lasting and durable peace. All paramilitary groups in Northern Ireland should follow through on the Good Friday agreement commitments to the decommissioning of all weapons," the US official said.