US: Many forecasters called the US mid-term elections wrong. One person who got it right was Karl Rove. George Bush's political adviser masterminded the White House election campaign and figured out a way to win. He forced a president who dislikes travel to barnstorm his way through 23 states in two furious final weeks of campaigning, mainly in tight races.
The strategist, whose finger-prints are on every presidential policy initiative and concession to pressure groups, foresaw six months ago that this would be critical, as it would energise core Republican support. He selected candidates in key primaries and targeted vulnerable seats.
Nicknamed by Bush the "turd blossom" after the flower that grows in a cow pat, Rove made many Republican flowers bloom in the muck of a dirty election. His mantra to the troops was to "run on the war" and align themselves with a popular president on national security.
Rove got Bush to vow to "hunt down those cold-blooded killers one by one" in every speech - it always got loud applause - while expressing concern about jobs to neutralise bad economic news.
Rove's plans have been public knowledge since June, when a White House intern mislaid a computer disk containing his mid-term election strategy, gleefully published by the Democrats. They did not take sufficient note of its content, nor, it appears, did Democrats produce an election computer disk of their own.
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One key state targeted by Karl Rove was Georgia. This is what is called "yellow-dog Democrat" country, where people would supposedly vote for a yellow dog if it was on the Democratic ticket. No republican had been elected governor of Georgia since the Civil War.
The Washington Post said on Sunday: "Governor Roy Barnes (Democrat) won election four years ago with 52 per cent and is headed for a much bigger victory." In fact the Republican candidate, Sonny Perdue, won. In an even bigger shock Democratic Senator Max Cleland, a war hero who lost both legs and an arm in Vietnam, was defeated by Republican Saxby Chambliss. Cleland was the subject of television "attack" ads featuring bin Laden for daring to criticise Bush's security policies.
The defining issue for rural white voters who turned out in large numbers was, however, the Confederate flag. Many whites said it symbolised their heritage, but blacks view it as racist. In a compromise, Barnes reduced the symbol to matchbox size on the state flag. Perdue promised to put the issue to a vote.
Signs on telephone poles in Georgia showed the Confederate battle cross with the words "Boot Barnes" at the bottom. To rub salt in the wounds, the new governor borrowed words from Martin Luther King to declare in his victory speech that the state was "Free at last, free at last, Thank God Almighty, free at last", of Democratic rule.
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The Washington Post wasn't alone in getting the election wrong. "Today, I have egg on my face, for predicting a Democratic win. Pardon me while I wipe it off," wrote Dick Morris, Republican strategist. Pollsters didn't fare well either. One poll in Minnesota showed Democrat Walter Mondale with a six-point lead, while another the same day had Republican Norm Coleman ahead by six points (Coleman won). A big problem for poll-takers is the growing difficulty of reaching an American public weary of "junk" telephone calls. Younger people are likely only to have cell phones, for which there is no directory, and it is more common now to have unlisted numbers for home telephones. Also more and more people have caller-ID so they can screen out unwanted solicitations. The polling industry is in transition from telephone data collection to Internet data collection, said Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster, adding with frustration: "In the meantime, we've got to get people to answer the phone and say how they will vote."
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One of the not-so-secret weapons used by the Republicans to win the mid-term elections was Rudy Giuliani. The 58-year-old former New York mayor campaigned almost as extensively as George W. Bush. He was greeted with thunderous applause at rallies, and eulogised at $5,000-a-head dinners. Widely regarded as an all-American hero for the calm way he handled the aftermath of September 11th, Giuliani is enjoying celebrity status. He commands $100,000 an appearance on the lecture circuit and is richer by $2.7 million from the advance for his best-selling book Leadership. A consortium of Mexican businessmen is paying him $4.3 million for advice on how to combat crime in Mexico City. He is not everyone's hero. Former Bronx borough president Fernando Ferrer accuses Giuliani of turning the attack on New York into a self-promoting industry. But his popularity as "America's Mayor" is so great he is now being marked for high political office. Associates speculate he could become chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or succeed Dick Cheney as the president's running mate in 2004.
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One Democratic Senator who got re-elected was Jay Rockefeller in West Virginia. His uncle, banker David Rockefeller, was the subject of a story told by Michael Roarty, outgoing president of the Ireland-US Council, at its annual dinner in Manhattan.
A man went to Rockefeller's bank and asked him for a $1,500 loan for a holiday in Ireland. As collateral he offered his Cadillac parked outside. Rockefeller agreed.
Two weeks later the traveller returned and repaid the loan plus $35 interest. As he handed back the car keys, Rockefeller asked why he had to borrow $1,500 as he was obviously a wealthy man. "Tell me," replied the customer, "where I can park a car in Manhattan for two weeks for $35?"