A DELIGHT in good, old-fashioned political blood-letting may play a bigger role in consumer attitudes than we think. Why else would a majority of the electorate favour a general election arising from tribunal investigations when the result is so uncertain and the present Coalition Government might be returned?
Fianna Fail supporters, at 59 per cent, are least anxious to have an election. What is interesting, however, is that a majority of Progressive Democrats supporters (58 per cent) join Fine Gael and the Labour Party (63 and 69 per cent) in seeking a contest where friction develops between the Government parties as a result of tribunal investigations.
Even more startling, in terms of future Coalition solidarity, is the finding that Progressive Democrats supporters are as dissatisfied as those in Fine Gael concerning Bertie Ahern's handling of the Tom Gilmartin allegations.
Tectonic shifts, driven by revelations at the Moriarty and Flood tribunals, are beginning to affect public attitudes. But the overall political landscape is still largely unaffected.
Given the intense political caution that operates at Leinster House, these opinion poll figures make a general election less likely in the short term. But "events" have a nasty habit of taking control at the most inopportune times.
And the odds will stack up against the Government if the expectations of the public are realised at the Moriarty and Flood tribunals. Already, more than one-third of Fianna Fail supporters feel an election should be called in certain difficult circumstances. And there is widespread disillusionment with politicians in general.
In spite of all the manure that has been hitting the Fianna Fail fan in recent months, the party is in remarkably good shape. It has lost eight points since October, but it still attracts 48 per cent of the popular vote. More importantly, Mr Ahern's satisfaction rating is exceptionally high at 70 per cent, having dropped 11 points.
The Taoiseach has retained much of the Teflon factor. Even within Fine Gael he has a satisfaction rating of 52 per cent, and it hits 89 per cent in Fianna Fail.
By contrast, John Bruton is limping. With a successful ardfheis under his belt and Fianna Fail on the ropes at the tribunals, he still failed to increase his public satisfaction rating beyond 47 per cent. The Fine Gael leader has failed to make a positive impact in Dublin and with younger voters and generates only 75 per cent support among his own followers.
On the positive side, however, the Fine Gael party has gained five points at the expense of Fianna Fail, and support now stands at 25 per cent.
The Labour Party has also gained two points at Fianna Fail's expense and now holds 14 per cent of the vote. During the same period, satisfaction with Ruairi Quinn's leadership grew from 51 to 55 per cent.
In spite of these small gains, there will be disappointment within the party that its amalgamation with Democratic Left has not generated a larger dividend. The new whole does not appear to exceed the sum of the parts.
Mary Harney and the Progressive Democrats will be relieved by the signs of growth in party support and in her personal satisfaction rating. The party's higher profile in Government and its articulation of standards of behaviour have caused the party and its leader to rise in the public estimation while Fianna Fail's stock and that of Mr Ahern declined.
The danger, from the Government's point of view, is that such public approval may encourage the smaller party to adopt a more independent and critical stance in future. If that road was followed, stability would suffer.
The Green Party returned a solid 3 per cent support base in the poll. But it will have to do better if it hopes to do well in the European and local elections in June.
Sinn Fein's showing of 2 per cent is exactly half of what the party gained in the aftermath of the Belfast Agreement. And the difficulties besetting the Northern Ireland peace process will make it hard for the party to gain popular support.
Conventional wisdom tells us the electorate punishes those parties that cause an unnecessary general election. On the basis of this survey, however, the public is of the view that matters being explored by the Moriarty and Flood tribunals may be of sufficient stature to warrant an election.
For the opposition parties, all that is required is the precise issue, good timing and perceived political advantage.