CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: DUBLIN NORTH CENTRAL:FIANNA FÁIL is in the DNA of many in Dublin North Central, which has been one of the party's staunchest strongholds. The three-seater will be a weather vane in Dublin at least, for how far the party's fortunes slip or stabilise.
A settled constituency it includes Marino, Clontarf, Artane, Coolock, Beaumont, parts of Drumcondra and the Edenmore area, which has moved in from Dublin North East.
It was a bastion of late former taoiseach Charles Haughey for 35 years until 1992 when his son, Seán Haughey, a Minister of State since 2006, ran. He has held the seat since and is the only Fianna Fáil TD in the constituency after it dropped from four to three seats in 2007, with Ivor Callely losing out. Fianna Fáil now has reason to be very worried about the safety of that seat.
The low-profile Minister of State has however consistently garnered support, both for being Charlie Haughey’s son and in spite of it. While Fianna Fáil is now more “transfer toxic”, Haughey may be the beneficiary of that quiet Fianna Fáil vote – those who may not admit to it, but will vote for the party. He is an assiduous constituency worker and if Fianna Fáil is on 16 per cent, he can be expected to have at least 4 per cent more. It is possibly the party’s most loyal constituency in the capital, with a consistently high voter turnout.
However it is now also a constituency where a lot of doors have “no politicians” signs up and, with rising unemployment, there is growing disillusionment.
The only guarantee is that Fine Gael’s Richard Bruton will top the poll. He has retained the seat since 1982 and, when Fine Gael was decimated in the 2002 general election, he was one of just three surviving party TDs in the 12 Dublin constituencies.
After that, it is four candidates looking for two seats. Fine Gael’s second candidate is Naoise Ó Muirí, a councillor and engineer who runs a technology company. Anyone with a whiff of business has an advantage and Ó Muirí has engaged the electorate.
Fine Gael is riding high in the polls at 37 per cent and he could get over the line with rigid vote- management – not a great party skill.
Labour has had mixed fortunes in Dublin North Central. It had a seat for a decade until 2002, when Independent and former school principal Finian McGrath won it and held it in 2007, despite the constituency going from four to three seats. A well-regarded TD on the ground, he can only gain from the growing speculation about Fine Gael in government with the support of Independents.
The other major contender is Labour councillor Aodhán Ó Riordáin, also a school principal, who has built a high profile. In 2007, Labour got just 7.27 per cent of first preferences in this constituency but Ó Riordáin should benefit from his party’s national performance.
Helen McCormack is running for Sinn Féin, whose votes transferred to McGrath in a big way last time. Donna Cooney is the Green Party candidate and eyes will be on her transfers and on how well People Before Profit and United Left Alliance candidate John Lyons polls. The final candidate is Paul Clarke, an Independent.
DUBLIN NORTH CENTRAL: 3 SEATS
OUTGOING TDs:
Séan Haughey (FF), Richard Bruton (FG), Finian McGrath (Ind).
CANDIDATES:
Séan Haughey (FF), Richard Bruton (FG), Naoise Ó Muíri (FG), Aodhán O Riordáin (Lab), Donna Cooney (Green), Helen McCormack (SF), Finian McGrath (Ind), John Lyons (ULA), Paul Clarke (Ind).
LOCAL ISSUES:
Unemployment and the resultant emigration of young people; the state of the health service and hospital waiting lists; the universal social charge.
VERDICT: FG 1, Lab 1, Ind 1
