Security sources on both sides of the Border report much lower levels of IRA activity in this "cessation" than occurred in the last 18-month ceasefire from August 1994 to February 1996.
During the last IRA ceasefire the organisation test-fired mortars and was known to be recruiting and training. There are no known reports of this type of activity since the last cessation was called on July 19th last.
But the organisation is understood to have undergone organisational changes and is still believed to be led by very determined hardline figures. Senior Garda sources still believe the organisation treats the current ceasefire as a temporary arrangement and will be prepared to resort to violence again.
One leading IRA figure, living in south Armagh, is believed to be fundamentally opposed to the idea of a permanent or even prolonged ceasefire.
The man, a bachelor in his 50s, has never emerged as a public figure and has never taken part in any of the Sinn Fein visits to the United States or meetings with government figures.
He has never served a significant jail term despite the fact that he has been active in the Provisional IRA since its foundation. Senior Garda sources say the man directs major operations and would probably have had control of the bomb attacks in England which ended the last ceasefire.
The views expressed by the IRA interviewee in this week's edition of An Phoblacht/Republican News may not have come from this man in person, but they are identical to the outlook the man is reported to hold. Gardai say that so long as he is in a senior position the IRA will not decommission any weapons and will not adhere to any formula like the Mitchell Principles, which would forbid the IRA from resorting to the use of violence.
It is not known exactly what the IRA's intentions are but it is suspected the organisation is taking time to renew itself after suffering severe setbacks during the period when it was running its campaign up to July 19th.
According to sources, it is believed the organisation's "Southern Command" was radically restructured in the past year. The former Southern commander, a Belfast man living in the Tallaght area of Dublin, was dismissed some months after the killing in Limerick of Garda Jerry McCabe in June 1996.
The Southern Command, formerly one unit, has been split into a number of "command" areas, thought to be Southern, Western, Northern and Dublin. This restructuring, it is understood, is designed to impose stricter control over the organisation in the Republic.
The new command areas are expected to function in roughly the same way as previously. The South and West regions are still thought to have control of significant arms dumps. The Dublin region is heavily involved "fundraising".
Three of the Dublin IRA, one a long-serving member from the Finglas area, were involved in a plan to rob the AIB bank centre at Ballsbridge, Dublin. This emerged in the week after the latest ceasefire was called when Garda Special Branch officers arrested the men and found they had made a video of the buildings in the bank centre used to handle large amounts of cash. The centre handles up to £8 million in used notes at a time.
The main IRA bomb-making operation is believed to be tightly controlled by the man from the Border area. The bomb factory found by gardai in Cavan last month is thought to have been the IRA's main one. It contained more than 400 completed electronic circuit boards for detonating bombs. The presence of a radio-controlled robotic device for a driverless car or van suggests the organisation was intent in delivering a bomb by remote control to a British army checkpoint or some other rural security base in the North.
This type of self-manufactured equipment, along with the plastic explosive Semtex, is the most important component in the IRA's armoury. The Cavan bomb factory revealed the organisation has continued to refine its bombs. Garda sources are sure the IRA is currently engaged in replacing the factory uncovered in Cavan and will continue to work on its own weaponry.
Most of this equipment is made from commercial electronic and light engineering equipment and can be replaced relatively easily. The most important element of IRA resources is an estimated three tonnes of Semtex.