Inequities in French society have turned the left-right divide on its head, at a time when politics is entirely focused on the 2002 presidential election. Affluent Frenchmen with university degrees support socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, while those of modest education and income prefer Gaullist President Jacques Chirac.
In recent opinion polls, Mr Jospin receives a confidence rating of around 50 per cent among workers paid less than 7,500 francs (£900) a month, but positive responses rise to 70 per cent among those earning more than 20,000 francs. The political scientist Jerome Jaffre says Europe is the cause of this shift in political loyalty. Less well-off French people feel threatened by the European integration that the socialists espouse. They see it as a vector of economic liberalism and mass immigration. "The distinction between a France that is open to the world and a France that wants to turn inward . . . remains fundamental," Mr Jaffre says.
At the end of November, the two leaders were running neck and neck, with Mr Chirac receiving a confidence rating of 54 per cent and Mr Jospin 53 per cent. Yet Mr Jospin's socialist party is by far the more popular, with 55 per cent of those polled saying they had a positive image of the socialists, compared to only 34 per cent for the Gaullist RPR.
Mr Jospin knows that the left's new upper middle class following is precarious. They place their hope in finance minister Laurent Fabius, an economic liberal, to adopt unsocialist measures, including private pension funds and the privatisation of state-owned companies. But these atypical socialists could easily defect to the centre right of Alain Madelin and Francois Bayrou - both of whom have declared their candidacy for the presidency.
For his part, Mr Chirac is thrice handicapped: by the left's popularity and the relative success of Mr Jospin's government; by the fragmentation of the right; and by the shadow of les affaires - a series of unresolved financial corruption scandals that centre on Mr Chirac's long rule as Mayor of Paris.
Mr Chirac went on the offensive in November, making a surprise television appearance to pre-empt the government's plodding battle against the spread of BSE. He demanded the immediate banning of meat and bonemeal in animal feed, and wider BSE testing. Mr Jospin was furious but because of the panic incited by Mr Chirac was forced to adopt the measures suggested.
Mr Chirac's "mad cow" offensive changed the principles of the Jospin-Chirac "cohabitation". Three weeks later, Mr Jospin retaliated by demanding that the "electoral calendar" be reversed - in other words, that the April-May 2002 presidential poll take place before the March 2002 general election.
That the order of voting was the main political issue in France at the year end shows just how arcane the struggle between the two men is becoming. Mr Jospin says the adjustment is consistent with the logic of the institutions of the Fifth Republic. Mr Chirac wants the legislative elections first. If the left loses the National Assembly, it cannot possibly field Mr Jospin as its presidential candidate and would be forced to find a new candidate quickly. And even if the left wins the general election, Mr Chirac reasons, the French public, who like "cohabitation", might re-elect him anyway.
Until November, the first rule of cohabitation was that "whoever shoots first is dead". French leaders believed that voters would not forgive the man seen to be the aggressor. However, a new understanding has taken hold: the last one alive (politically) will be the next president.
Assuming, of course, that a "third man" - or woman - does not upset the contest. Martine Aubry, the daughter of the former EU commissioner Jacques Delors, is the public's first choice to be Mr Jospin's prime minister should he win the presidency. And if Mr Jospin continues to blunder on a regular basis, Ms Aubry could become the socialists' presidential candidate.
Also on the left, the former interior minister Jean-Pierre Chevenement is extremely popular. Mr Chevenement resigned on August 28th in protest at Mr Jospin's autonomy plan for Corsica.
Alternatives to Mr Chirac on the right are less credible - Alain Madelin, Francois Bayrou, Charles Pasqua - but their number and persistence undermine Mr Chirac's chances. It will be a terrible blow to the President if the socialists prise Paris from the RPR in the March 2001 municipal election.
Twice during the French EU presidency, the rivalry between Messrs Chirac and Jospin came to an embarrassing head before other European leaders. On July 3rd, the first working day of the French presidency, Mr Jospin sulked at an Elysee press conference with Mr Chirac and EU Commission president Romano Prodi. The socialists had objected to Mr Chirac's surprise initiative in the German Bundestag, where he called for a European constitution and a "pioneer group" of EU countries to surge ahead of the others. As usual, Mr Chirac turned the clash to his advantage; opinion polls showed that 68 per cent of the French public approved of his Bundestag speech.
Mr Chirac repeated the tactic in November, with his attack on the government's handling of the BSE crisis. As political commentator Alain Duhamel observed, Mr Chirac "has no equal in taking the pulse of the public, espousing its concerns, anticipating its instincts, foreseeing its fears and, if need be, shamelessly exploiting its passions".
It is too early to tell whether Chirac the manipulator or Jospin the earnest will be France's next president. Financial scandal is the greatest threat to Mr Chirac. The revelation that he spent £55,222 for his three-week holiday in Mauritius last summer contrasted with the Jospins' modest stay in a rented house on the Ile de Re. A far greater blow, made in a videocassette testimonial by a now-dead Gaullist party fundraiser, was the allegation that Mr Chirac watched cheerfully as £600,240 in illegal funds were handed over to his chief aide in 1986. The video surfaced just three days before the September 24th referendum that shortened the presidential term from seven to five years; the record low turnout of 30 per cent was seen as a disavowal of Mr Chirac, who had called the poll.
If Mr Chirac is threatened by his past, Mr Jospin shows a special talent for bungling the present. In February, he was stoned by Palestinian demonstrators and pilloried at home after denouncing the "terrorist actions" of the Lebanese Hizbullah. In March, he was forced to reshuffle his cabinet and abandon fiscal reform because of a tax collectors' strike. Mr Jospin's conclusion of an autonomy agreement for Corsica backfired in July, with 57 per cent of the public opposing the accord that would give legislative powers to the Corsican assembly. The Prime Minister was also bruised by fuel protests by fishermen at the end of August and chaos caused by hauliers, farmers and others in early September.
Both leaders suffered severe dips in popularity in mid-September, but both subsequently recovered. The French public, it seems, has a short memory. However, will it have the patience for at least 15 more months of presidential campaigning?