The percentage of the population living in relative poverty rose between 1998 and 2000, according to an unpublished ESRI survey.
The draft report has been supplied to the Department of Social, Community and Family Affairs but a spokesman said yesterday that the Minister, Mr Ahern, had not seen it and would not comment on a draft report. The ESRI does not expect to publish the report for some months.
Preliminary results from the ESRI's 2000 Living in Ireland survey show that the proportion of both households and people living on under 50 per cent of average income rose in the Government's first three years in power, according to informed sources.
This continued a trend evident since the early 1990s of generally rising incomes accompanied by greater inequality .
The proportion of households living on under 50 per cent of average income rose from 18.6 per cent in 1994 to 22.4 per cent in 1997 and over 25 per cent in 2000. The proportion of the population living on under 50 per cent of average income rose from 17.4 per cent in 1994 to 18.1 per cent in 1997 and to approximately 21 per cent in 2000.
In an article in yesterday's Irish Times, Mr Ahern disputed the use of relative income as a measure of poverty.
He was commenting on an analysis by the Combat Poverty Agency which found relative poverty virtually unchanged during the Government's five year term. CPA analysis derived from the ESRI's SWITCH tax/benefit model, while the new ESRI data has emerged from a survey conducted in 2000. Combat Poverty, which is a State agency, yesterday declined to comment on the ESRI data prior to its publication.
Although the Government in its National Anti-Poverty Strategy prefers to focus on declining consistent poverty, or the number of people on low incomes experiencing deprivation of basic necessities, relative poverty is regarded by the EU as a key indicator of poverty.
A new EU programme will measure the performance of governments in reducing relative income poverty. However, in its most recent review of the NAPS, the Government has committed itself to monitoring, not reducing, relative poverty.
Prof Brian Nolan, an author of the ESRI's report, declined yesterday to comment on it. He pointed out that the ESRI had argued for a reduction in both consistent and relative poverty in an earlier report which stated that we should seek to "ensure that no one falls too far below what will in time come to be taken for granted as ordinary living standards".
The EU's measure of the risk of poverty has increased in Ireland, the ESRI data reveals. The EU measures those living on under 60 per cent of median income (the middle of the income distribution) rather than average income to avoid a few very high incomes distorting the picture.
The proportion of the population on under 60 per cent of median income rose from 15.5 per cent in 1994 to 18.2 per cent in 1997 and approximately 22 per cent in 2000, according to the ESRI study.
Mr Ahern wrote yesterday that poverty in Ireland had fallen below the EU average based on this measure. However, his department has confirmed that the Minister was quoting comparative EU data for 1998 which predate the recent increase recorded by the ESRI.
Income inequality in Ireland was above the EU average in 1996, the last year for which the EU has published comparative data. In 1996 the richest 20 per cent of the population had nearly six times the income of the poorest 20 per cent. In Denmark the richest 20 per cent had under three times the share of the poorest 20 per cent.
This week's CPA analysis suggests inequality has since increased. The richest 20 per cent of the population received more than 40 per cent of Budget giveaways over the last five years compared to under 5 per cent for the poorest 20 per cent.
Mr Ahern yesterday pointed to the broadly equal percentage gains in disposable income which the Budgets gave to different income groups.
These cloak great cash differences: 1 per cent of a £100,000 income is £1,000: 1 per cent of a £10,000 income is £100.