Risks for Labour in keeping option of coalition with FF open

Earlier this month Mr Ruairi Quinn said he would not be "bounced by anyone into a political straitjacket"

Earlier this month Mr Ruairi Quinn said he would not be "bounced by anyone into a political straitjacket". Labour would fight the next election as an independent party, only deciding afterwards what "will best serve the interests of the Irish people and in particular, those who have voted for the Labour Party".

Well, those intending to vote Labour certainly have a clear preference, with twice as many preferring coalition options involving Fine Gael than Fianna Fail. Among those preferring Fine Gael are some who would prefer to have the Green Party, the PDs or even Sinn Fein attached.

Taken together, these amount to 55 per cent of the party's voters, while 27 per cent would prefer to coalesce with Fianna Fail.

An element in Labour wants to rule out coalition with Fianna Fail in advance of a general election, fearing that potential voters who are hostile to Fianna Fail will not vote Labour if they think this may also be a vote for a Fianna Failled government.

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However, those wishing to keep the options open believe this strategy will attract Fianna Fail transfers, giving the party seats in key constituencies. They also believe that defining Labour as an independent party during the campaign, rather than as the minority partner in a pre-ordained coalition, would maximise support.

The poll figures will give some ammunition to those who want to rule out Fianna Fail, although the leadership is likely to continue to resist pressure to narrow the options. Just this week the Taoiseach spoke positively of the idea of coalition with Labour, and pointed out what many senior figures privately feel: many leading Labour people are comfortable doing business with Fianna Fail, even if their voters are unenthusiastic about the idea.

The electorate as a whole shows no clear preference for who should form the next government, with equal support for four combinations. The idea of the present combination of Fianna Fail/PDs, or the alternatives of Fianna Fail/ Labour, Fine Gael/ Labour or Fianna Fail/Fine Gael each received 14 per cent support.

It is notable too how supporters of the Progressive Democrats - once seen as a strongly anti-Fianna Fail party - are now more comfortable with the present coalition with the old enemy than the alternative of joining Fine Gael and Labour in government. Some 47 per cent prefer the Fianna Fail option, with 26 per cent going for the alternative.

Fianna Fail voters reciprocate, with 32 per cent favouring a coalition with the PDs, 25 per cent supporting a coalition with Labour and just 4 per cent wanting to go into government with Sinn Fein.

Of Fine Gael voters, 43 per cent favour the Labour option with a further 20 per cent supporting a broader coalition involving the Greens or the PDs. Four per cent would approve of Sinn Fein involvement in a Fine/ Gael/Labour/SF government.

The idea of a grand coalition of the two largest parties received the support of 20 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters and 19 per cent of Fine Gael voters. The idea has always been attractive to the left, which sees it as an opportunity for Labour to have a free run in opposition, building support unchallenged by the larger parties. However, the two big parties will always resist it.

The poll shows further evidence of growing public indifference to the political choices facing the electorate, particularly among young people.

Among all voters, 27 per cent expressed no preference when presented with the series of coalition options. However, among those in the 18-24 age group, those expressing no preference for any coalition option rose to 42 per cent. Some 22 per cent of this age group said they did not know who they would vote for, with a further 15 per cent saying they would not vote at all.

There is a stark difference in attitude to established politics within this younger age group compared with the electorate in general.

While around two thirds of all respondents said they would vote for one of what could loosely be described as the establishment parties (Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour or the Progressive Democrats), fewer than half of the 1824 age group said they would do so.

The majority in this group say either that they don't know, that they would choose not to vote, or would support Sinn Fein, the Green Party, other small parties or Independents.

Electors in the less well-off C2DE social group were also three times as likely not to vote as those in the better-off ABC1 group and farmers.