Obama is less than one point ahead of Romney here, making it a hotly contested swing state
MITT ROMNEY came to this pretty town lined with antique shops and twee restaurants seeking votes on Wednesday night. Leesburg lies at the heart of Loudoun, the richest county in the US, with a median annual income of $115,600. So it would seem a natural constituency for Romney the quarter billionaire.
Except that four years ago, rich Loudoun and red Virginia voted for a Democrat for the first time in 44 years, awarding Barack Obama a 6.3 percentage point lead over John McCain.
Obama is less than one point ahead of Romney in Virginia, making it one of the most hotly contested swing states.
“I’m watching from the sidelines,” says Gregory Harris, an attorney and a Democrat who stood outside his office in North King Street as Republicans streamed past on their way to the Romney rally.
“There was an amazing groundswell of support for Obama last time,” Harris sighs.
“I hadn’t done anything since protesting George Wallace in the ’70s, but I was out there knocking on doors and manning a phone bank.
This time, the right-wing people are worked up; the left-wing people are not. More than half the Republicans who told me they voted for Obama in ’08 say ‘I can’t go with him this time’.”
A pudgy, middle-aged man wearing sunglasses and a gaudy gold ring pauses on his way to the rally. Like many Republicans who distrust what they label “the liberal media”, he won’t give his name, but identifies himself as a software sales executive.
“The money that’s coming in from Europe is upsetting,” he says.
From Europe? Why?
“George Soros has put tens of millions of dollars into superpacs,” he explains, referring to the Hungarian-born US billionaire. “Just look up Soros’s socialist background – he’s not the only one.”
“I gave up bridge to go to the rally,” declares Ruth, a petite, middle-aged Republican housewife who sits with two friends in a cafe.
“I’m really pissed off with the BBC!” Margie chimes in. “They said Barack Obama won the debate!”
He did, according to the polls.
I recall a quip by EJ Dionne of the Washington Post: When the polls turn against them, Republicans want to kill the pollster.
When polls are unfavourable to Democrats, Democrats want to kill themselves.
As twilight descends on Leesburg, I walk towards the rally with Nicky, a housewife in her 30s accompanied by two children.
“We needs some RR”, says the badge on her chest, with “Romney” and “Ryan” printed in small letters. She clutches a child with one hand and the yellow “Don’t Tread on Me” Tea Party flag in the other. Her husband, a software engineer, couldn’t come to the rally because he works late. “His company always sent him to the political conventions,” Nicky says. “This year he refused to go to Charlotte. He went to Denver in 2008 and he told me the people were dirty and rude.” Hygiene and manners matter to Nicky.
By contrast, at the first big Tea Party rally on the Mall in Washington three years ago, “People were clean and polite. They picked up all their rubbish.”
Nicky is so worried about voter fraud she’s joined True the Vote, a Tea Party group that will dispatch observers to polling stations on November 6th.
Numerous Republican-led states have enacted new voter identification laws, which the Democrats challenge in court.
They say fantasies of fraud are propagated to deprive ethnic minorities, who mostly vote for Obama, of their right to vote.
The scent of popped corn and hot chocolate wafts through the park where 40,000 people came to see Obama in 2008. This evening, an estimated 8,000 have turned up for Romney. There are virtually no ethnic minorities and I recall Republican senator Lindsey Graham’s observation at the convention in Tampa: “We’re not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term.”
It’s cold, and supporters of Romney are so keen to avoid the post-rally traffic they begin to drift away halfway through his 30- minute speech. Romney revisits the issue of women’s rights, which he’d fluffed the previous evening by talking about “binders full of women” and employers allowing women to go home early enough to cook dinner. “This president has failed America’s women,” he says ominously. “They’ve suffered in terms of getting jobs. They’ve suffered in terms of falling into poverty.”
Women comprise the largest number of undecided voters. Romney closed the gap that separated him from Obama in the polls in the first presidential debate, mainly by seducing women with his moderation and promises of prosperity.
Now it seems both candidates only have eyes for the ladies.
“I’ve always been a working woman,” says Holly Bryant (58), an underwater acoustics contractor for the department of defence. “I don’t think we can give everyone everything,” Bryant shrugs when she tells me she’s paid less than male counterparts.
Nor does she believe in free contraception, as offered by Obama. “I learned to either keep my knees together or buy the Pill,” she says. “People have to be responsible for themselves.”
Charlie and Christina King have a mixed political marriage. Charlie (51), a lawyer, will vote for Romney. Christina (53) attended the rally to be with her family, but will vote for Obama.
“The American government is getting too big and spending too much money,” Charlie says.
“I care about a woman’s right to choose; that and protecting the middle class, not the wealthy,” says Christina.
A few days ago, Christina joined three female colleagues for lunch at the financial services company where she works.
“As a newcomer, I was cautious at first. It turned out we had four Republican husbands and four women who will vote for Obama.”
Regardless of polls showing Romney gaining among women, Christina predicts: “It’s going to be very close, but Obama will win. There are a lot of people out there like me.”